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Egypt Food and Drink Report Q4 2011

Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 91

Business Monitor International's Egypt Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's food and drink industry.

We believe Gulf-based companies will increasingly pursue diverging core and frontier market strategies, with companies in the UAE and Saudi Arabia uniquely placed to lead investment spending in Egypt. Companies such as Saudi Arabia’s diversified dairy firm Almarai are increasingly growing their core units regionally, with Egypt among the frontier market leaders. While we expect a number of nonregional multinationals (particularly outside soft drinks) to continue to target Egypt through exports out of their Gulf bases, with fixed asset investment continuing to rise, more companies are likely to pursue Egypt directly. Egyptian companies should also continue to emerge strongly as domestic capital market expansion provides the impetus for expansionary activity, with commercial loan growth anticipated alongside greater scope for rights issues and initial public offerings.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2011 per capita food consumption +9.3%; forecast to 2015 +65.1%
- 2011 carbonated drink sales +5.6%; forecast to 2015 +56.4%
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales +14.9%; forecast to 2015 +251.9%

Key Company Trends

Subway To Open 90 Stores By 2017 – In July 2011, US fast-food chain Subway announced plans to double its Egyptian store network from four to eight outlets by 2011. The decision is part of Subway’s ambitious target to operate in 90 locations in the country by 2017. The expansion plans come despite the popular unrest that removed Hosni Mubarak from power in February 2011, which hampered the tourism and industrial sectors.

M&S Investing In MGR Sector – Egypt’s MGR industry has traditionally not attracted as much investment as the food and drink segments such as dairy and soft drinks. However, over the past year or so, investment interest has picked up, with Western European retailers increasingly interested in the market. At the end of 2010 UK-based retailer Marks & Spencer (M&S) opened its first store in Egypt with its franchise partner Al Futtaim and in July 2011 the head of operations for M&S at Dubai’s Al Futtaim revealed it was planning to launch three stores in the country as part of the company’s five-year expansion plan for the Middle East region.

Key Risks to Outlook
Regulatory Environment – Egypt’s regulatory environment remains a concern. Infrastructure continues to misfire and internal trade systems remain weak, which contribute to Egypt being a high-cost market. For the time being, wide income inequalities will also continue to limit the scope of return on investment. Political Unrest – In addition, a resumption of large-scale protests on the same scale as witnessed in early 2011 would do further harm to the country’s all-important tourism sector, and hold back the economy’s growth potential in the process.

BMI Industry View

SWOT Analysis
Egypt Food Industry SWOT
Egypt Drink Industry SWOT
Egypt Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry
Middle East Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa Q411 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Egypt Food And Risk/Reward Rating

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Egypt - Economic Activity, 2006-2015

Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food consumption indicators, 2007-2015
Confectionery
Table: Chocolate, 2007-2015
Table: Sweet Biscuits, 2007-2015
Prepared Food
Table: Prepared Meat, 2007-2015
Table: Prepared Fish, 2007-2015
Table: Frozen fruit & vegetables, 2007-2015
Table: Jams And Jellies, 2007-2015
Table: Pasta, 2007-2015
Oils & Fats
Table: Oils and fats, 2007-2015
Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Table: Beer Sales, 2007-2015
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drink Sales, 2007-2015
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot drinks, 2007-2015
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2008-2015
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) – Historical Data And Forecasts
Trade
Table: Sectoral Trade, 2007-2015
Food

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Subway To Open 90 Stores By 2017
Nestlé Increases Investment in Egypt
Juhayna Set for Growth
Multinational Interest Growing
Domestic Companies Pursuing Local Expansion
Domestic Companies Also Interested in Overseas Collaborations
Western Restaurants Prompt Casual Dining Expansion
Market Overview
Food Processing
Trade
Agriculture
Dairy Industry
Sugar Processing Industry
Halal Food
Drink

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Cutting Down Tourism Reliance In Alcohol Sales
Multinational Interest Growing
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Investment Interest Growing Slowly
Supply Chain Boost
Carrefour MAF Continues Expanding
Makro Looks to Export Egyptian Produce
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players in Egypt’s Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Egypt’s Mass Grocery Retail Industry

Company Analysis

Food
Cairo Poultry Company (CPC)
Faragalla
Cadbury Schweppes (BimBim)

Drink
Al-Ahram Beverages Co (ABC)
Egypt Bottling Company (Pepsi)
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro (Mansour Group)
Carrefour MAF

BMI Food And Drink Methodology

Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting

BMI Food And Drink Industry Glossary
Food And Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food And Drink Forecasting And Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing

- Cairo Poultry Company (CPC)
- Faragalla
- Cadbury Schweppes (BimBim)
- Al-Ahram Beverages Co (ABC)
- Egypt Bottling Company (Pepsi)
- Metro (Mansour Group)
- Carrefour MAF

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