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Colombia Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 90
Business Monitor International's Colombia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's defence and security industry.
In its last update, BMI noted that the October 2011 regional elections taking place in Colombia may prove to be a key turning point in the government’s efforts to suppress the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and other leftist insurgents, and that continues to be the case. At the time of writing in mid-October BMI is on the eve of these elections, and all eyes remained very much focused upon proceedings.
BMI notes, however, that over the past quarter it has already witnessed another key event which could well prove to be a turning point for the incumbent government in their ongoing struggle against insurgents. Indeed, the recent complete replacement of Colombia’s military top brass and appointment of new defence minister Juan Carlos Pinzon, amid concerns of rising insurgency violence, show that the authorities are attempting to tackle the problem head on. What is more, this has been followed by an announcement that President Juan Manuel Santos intends to ramp up defence spending. BMI is forecasting spending of COP25,544,725.4mn in 2012, up by 10% from the expected expenditure of COP23,225,016.2mn in 2011.
Rising violence in recent months is no doubt causing considerable concern for Santos, whose hard-line security policy stance is broadly a continuation of his predecessor’s, Álvaro Uribe. BMI has previously flagged its concerns over the recent upticks in violence, and therefore regard the extra funding as a potentially positive development for the regional security profile.
But as BMI notes, the war is far from won. On September 19 2011, it was reported that the FARC had launched an attack on a police station in Las Mercedes, Colombia, injuring six police officers and two soldiers. Moreover, an uptick in violence in the run-up to Colombia’s October 2011 regional elections highlight the ongoing potential for security issues to disrupt the country’s positive economic trajectory over the coming years. However, BMI remains confident that the hard-line policy stance taken by President Juan Manuel Santos will continue to consolidate the successes of his predecessor Álvaro Uribe. Another significant security issue raised since BMI's last update, was made by the Colombian Minister of Mines and Energy, Mauricio Cardenas, who announced that illegal gold mining in Colombia is set to become the ‘next major threat’ to the nation’s security, as criminals move away from cocaine production and in search of new revenue sources due to government clampdowns. Guerrilla groups and organised crime gangs are also tapping the deposits as a way to expand beyond drug trafficking, fund weapons purchases and manpower. It has been reported that guerrillas already long present in some mining areas are now bringing in heavy equipment and consolidating to increase output in provinces in central and southwestern Colombia.
A key development in BMI's last report was the introduction of a new security policy by President Juan Manuel Santos. Unlike the Democratic Security policy of the administration of President Santos’ predecessor Alvaro Uribe (in which he served as defence minister), the policy focuses on urban problems in general and the bandas criminales in particular. The policy coincides with three important new pieces of legislation.
The Ley de Víctimas, which was promulgated in June 2011, recognises the potential for monetary compensation to the families of around 4mn people killed and wounded by the insurgents since the 1980s (and by other protagonists such as rightist militias and rogue elements of the governments’ own forces). Importantly, the new law does not include official recognition of FARC. The Ley de Tierras, which was also promulgated in June 2011, provides for wholesale restitution of land to those families who were forced off their properties as a result of the conflict.
Given that one of the root causes of internal insecurity in Colombia is inequality in income distribution which is closely associated with inequality in land ownership, this law should have a very positive impact over the long-term. A third piece of legislation involves a dramatic reallocation of royalty revenues from minerals and energy in favour of resource-poor departments. Finance minister Juan Echeverry has said that half of royalty revenues will be applied to poverty reduction programmes; BMI sees this as a favourable development as well.
Meanwhile, the new security policy also comes at a time that the Colombian government is placing more emphasis on strengthening diplomatic (and trade) ties with countries other than the US. During mid-2011, defence minister Rodrigo Rivera took part in discussions with the G-8 country leaders in Paris. More crucially, he undertook extensive negotiations with his Brazilian and Ecuadorean counterparts in relation to bilateral cooperation on the respective frontiers. The significance of the discussions with Brazil is increased by the investment and effort that that government is placing on boosting border security. The significance of the discussions with Ecuador is that that country now appears to be far less hospitable territory to any elements of FARC that remain. It is only about three years since diplomatic links between Ecuador and Colombia were broken as a result of an attack by the latters’ armed forces on a major FARC base in the former.
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