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Greece Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 110
Business Monitor International's Greece Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's telecommunications industry.
The Q112 update to BMI’s Greece Telecommunications Report provides extended forecasts through to 2016 for the mobile, ARPU, fixed-line and broadband markets. This is based on data issued by the regulator, the EETT, covering the period up to the end of March 2011, as well as operator data from incumbent OTE, Vodafone and wireline operators Forthnet and Hellas Online.
Developments in H111 have been played out against the backdrop of the country receiving a new rescue package, agreed by European leaders on July 21, and a subsequent deterioration of the domestic and eurozone macroeconomic and political environment. The eurozone is coming under increasing strain economically, with new bailout facilities in the process of being agreed. There have been a host of policy proposals for a range of measures aimed at shoring up the eurozone economy, in which Greece has increasingly been seen as beyond repair. Some sort of debt write-down is looking increasingly likely. If contagion were to spread into the strong core of the eurozone, there is downside risk of a considerably worse scenario playing out.
While the macroeconomic political environment has worsened further since BMI's last update, the underlying trends in the telecoms market are showing signs of levelling out. After the loss of more than 5mn subscriptions on the back of SIM registration regulations and the economic crisis, the market returned to positive growth in Q211, adding almost 300,000 subscribers. BMI warns that the outlook remains bleak, with penetration remaining above 130%. BMI expects the market to remain stagnant with quarters of modest growth interspersed with periodic subscriber losses. With Cosmote fairing relatively well in 2010, although still losing subscribers, BMI believes there is the potential for further large losses if the incumbent is still operating with a 180-day active subscriber definition as other T-Mobile-backed operations across Europe have done.
Greece’s wireline markets also have a poor outlook, with broadband growth the only real positive. Fixedline services have continued to decline although BMI expects Greece’s fixed-line market to remain relatively buoyant in the medium term due to interest in unbundled line offerings from alternative providers. This market will shrink slowly to 2016. Greece’s fixed-line subscriber market shrank by just 1.9% in 2010. BMI forecasts the y-o-y change in 2011 to be a 6.2% contraction based on operator data for the 12 months to the end of June 2011. By 2016 it expects a total of 5.044mn fixed lines in service, representing a penetration of just under 44%.
The biggest industry development in 2011 so far has been the announcement in June that Greece’s broadband network operators are weighing up the possibility of building a nationwide fibre-optic broadband network. OTE, WIND, Forthnet, Hellas Online, Cyta and On Telecoms have been discussing options for the development of Greece’s under-developed fixed broadband market. The alternative operators proposed combining their efforts to construct a shared FTTB network, accessible by any telecoms operator. This development has the potential to boost the country’s fixed broadband market; however, with mobile broadband yet to take off, with just 72,000 net additions to 298,000 in March 2011, the development trails other countries in the region. With slow mobile broadband growth, and the negative impact of the wider economic crisis, BMI forecasts broadband subscriptions to reach just 3.752mn at YE16, with a penetration of 32.6%.
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