Poland Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
- ID: 1977818
- November 2011
- Region: Poland
- 81 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Poland Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's defence and security industry.
Poland’s Presidency of the European Union (EU) through H211 should provide the opportunity for the government to promote four major objectives: greater cooperation on defence matters by EU member states; better collaboration between NATO and the EU; stronger ties between NATO and important neighbours to the East, including Russia and Ukraine, and an enhanced role for the EU battle groups.
However, Poland’s ability to make a very positive contribution to the European security environment does not just come from its EU presidency. With around 100,000 personnel, its armed forces are large in absolute terms. However, by the standards of their counterparts in other countries that are European members of NATO, they are fairly inexpensive. Poland was relatively unaffected by the global financial crisis which meant that, given the established policy of maintaining defence spending at 1.95% of GDP, the Defence Ministry did not have to make substantial cuts.
The programme of modernising the armed forces and making them interoperable with those of the rest of NATO is far more advanced than it is in other Central and Eastern European states. Unlike, say, its counterpart in Romania, the air force is already equipped with advanced F-16s. The latest (June 2011) Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the US provides for basing in Poland of F-16s and C-130 transports of the USAF: this will provide substantial opportunities for training and closer collaboration with US forces. Poland has long been a participant in NATO’s operations in Afghanistan and has been involved with many other exercises – including those that have focused on intelligence and/or the higher direction of joint operations.
From the point of view of the major multi-national defence/aerospace companies, Poland remains prospective territory. This is partly because the Defence Ministry has both the need and ability to pay for further procurements. The defence budget for 2011 was published in March this year. Total expenditure will amount to PLN27,260mn (up from PLN25,719mn in 2010). Of this, PLN6,637mn has been earmarked for procurement and capital investment. This means that spending on procurements should continue to grow in excess of 20%. In the short-term, the largest item appears to be the Lead-In Fighter Training (LIFT) programme.
Possible suppliers of jet trainers include Korea Aerospace Industries, BAE Systems, Aero Vochody and Alenia Aermacchi. These companies are competing on cost/price, combat features and transfer of production activity to Poland. Over the longer term, air defence systems will account for a sizeable portion of the procurement budget. However, the need for a new solution may have become slightly less pressing as a result of the new collaboration with the USAF.
Unlike most other countries in Central and Eastern Europe that are relatively new members of NATO and/or the EU, (although not the Czech Republic), Poland is also distinguished by the size and capabilities of its defence sector. The Defence Ministry has placed a major order for Sokol helicopters with Agusta Westland’s PZL Swidnik operation. In Q111, PZL Mielec began deliveries of the M- 28B/PT Bryza transport aircraft. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Poland Security SWOT
Poland Defence Industry SWOT
Poland Political SWOT
Poland Economic SWOT
Poland Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Eurozone At Centre-Stage, MENA Still A Major Risk
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, Q4 2011-Q4 2012
United States: Stalemate To Persist, Heading Into Election Season
Latin America: Much More Uncertainty To Come
Western Europe: Incumbent Leaders Under Pressure
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: The ‘Return’ Of Putin
Middle East And North Africa: Can Democracy Take Root?
Sub-Saharan Africa: Testing Times
Asia: All Eyes On China’s Moves
Wild Cards To Watch
Europe Security Overview
Political Risk Analysis - The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Europe In A Global Context
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Armed Forces (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated), 2000-2009
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated), 2008-2016
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2008-2016
Table: Defence Exports (US$mn), 2008-2016
Table: Defence Imports (US$mn), 2008-2016
Table: Defence Trade Balance (US$mn), 2008-2016
Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
WSK PZL Mielec
WSK PZL Rzeszow
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
City Terrorism Rating