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Viewing report
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Germany Freight Transport Report 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 64
Following a year which saw continued growth, BMI believes 2012 will signal further expansion, with some freight modes progressing on the way to recovering to their pre-downturn levels.
Total trade is projected to pick up, with the Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 5% in 2012 following an estimated growth of 8.7% in 2011.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by slightly more than 0.5% in 2012. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn, losing more than 10% of freight volumes over 2008 and 2009 before a strong recovery began in 2010.
Growth is also forecast in the rail freight sector in 2012, with traffic figures above pre-downturn levels in the mid-term.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 5.8%
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 3.2%
- 2012 port of Hamburg tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 3.8%
- 2012 port of Hamburg container throughput is forecast to grow by 6.3%
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 0.6%
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 5.0%. Key Industry Trends
Germany's Mega-Truck Programme On Hold
Germany's road freight sector will not be able to prove the mantra of 'bigger is better', as road trials for extra long trucks, known as gigaliners, have stalled. BMI highlights that the development of larger freight carriers can be seen across the freight sector, with shipping firms developing larger vessels and aircraft producers vying to launch larger freight planes. The much publicised argument is that the larger the vehicle, ship or plane, the lower the fuel consumption, leading to a reduction in CO2 emissions. BMI notes that the development of larger carriers offers economies of scale, allowing transport firms to ship more in one go, decreasing the cost of fuel, time and manpower, as well as providing a more positive outlook for companies' bottom lines.
DB Schenker Expands Market Share
European rail freight giant DB Schenker's market share expansion strategy is gathering steam, with the company announcing projects that will expand its exposure in Europe. The company plans to increase its market share in Europe to 30%, from 26% in 2010. BMI notes that it began 2011 well in this respect, resuming operations of the Asia-Europe Landbridge and more recently starting new rail freight initiatives in the Baltic States and the UK.
Hamburg Defies Economic Woes With Container Throughput Rise
Seemingly at odds with Germany's disappointing Q211 real GDP growth, Germany's main port, Hamburg, recorded a considerable rise in box throughput. But it appears to be as a result of the port's trans-shipment role, catering for increasing demand from Russia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
The growth has placed it once more in the running for second place in Europe's top 10 box-shipping ports.
Throughput On The Rise In Bremen And Bremerhaven
Container throughput was increasing even at a higher pace then Hamburg's at the twin ports of Bremen and Bremerhaven in the first half of 2011. Car exports through Bremerhaven contributed to a 35% surge in the vehicles handled at the port to approximately 968,000 units, with Germany's exports to Asia and the US compensating for lower imports.
Eurogate to Go Deeper
European container terminal operator Eurogate has obtained final approval from the state governments of Bremen and Lower Saxony to begin a dredging project at the River Weser, presenting further good news for Bremerhaven.
Hapag-Lloyd Looks East For Growth with Intra-Asia and Yangtze Services
While volumes at Germany's ports increase, shipping lines are also looking at other regions for growth. One such example is Hapag-Lloyd, which is increasing its Asian exposure in two areas that we believe offer massive growth potential: intra-Asia trade and services on the Yangtze River. Hapag-Lloyd is a latecomer to intra-Asia and presently has minimal exposure. It will therefore likely join up with regional operators. On the Yangtze River, however, Hapag-Lloyd is only the second line to offer a connection between a major Yangtze River port and the North American market.
Hamburg Sud Continues Rankings Assent With Largest Vessel Order To Date
While Hapag-Lloyd is increasing its Asian exposure Hamburg Sud, another German container line, continues its rise up the global container ship rankings and appears to be aiming to enter the top 10 after ordering a fleet of its biggest container ships yet. The company has been rocketing up the rankings while other container lines have been slipping. As Hamburg Sud's current operating fleet and new-build plans stand, the company could be in line to jump up to 10th place.
Lufthansa Cargo Hits Turbulence with Global Air Freight Decline and Night Flight Ban at Hub
A temporary night flight ban at Frankfurt, Germany's largest airport, piles further bad news on the already troubled air freight sector. The ban is likely to hit the airport operator Fraportand its major freight client Lufthansa Cargo, both of which are already suffering from the downturn in the air freight market. BMI highlights the global decline in air freight volumes, but notes that Latin America is a bright spot on the horizon for this sector.
Duisburg Continues Growth
The port of Duisburg, European largest inland port, demonstrated a 10% y-o-y increase in container volumes in the first half of 2011. The facility handled 1.2mn TEUs during this period, following 2010's record-breaking box throughput of 2.25mn TEUs.
DHL Cuts LCL Transits Times From Bremen To East, South And West Africa
DHL Global Forwarding, Deutsche Post DHL Group's specialist subsidiary for air and ocean freight, has expanded its less than container load (LCL) network by establishing direct ocean links between Germany and Africa. The three new routes between Bremen and Tema (Ghana), Cape Town (South Africa) and Mombasa (Kenya) shorten transit times by between five and six days.
Toll Group's Acquires German Ocean Global Forwarder
Australia-based logistics provider Toll Group has expanded its global forwarding business by acquiring German ocean forwarder Andree & Wilkerling (AWG). The company will become part of Toll's Global Forwarding Division. Germany is considered 'a critical market and key element' in Toll's Europe and Middle East growth strategy.
Risks to Outlook
BMI regards the freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the areas which have risk to the downside, as it is these modes of transport which will be affected by a decrease in container volumes if consumers come under additional pressure. The Country Risk team believes that a more challenging global economic environment and the intensifying sovereign debt crisis plaguing the eurozone will continue to weigh on business confidence, undermining the outlook for German fixed capital investment growth and household consumption. Declining external demand further limits the prospect of a stronger growth in box volumes transported by country's freight sector.
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