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Kazakhstan Freight Transport Report 2012
Description:
BMI believes 2011 saw continued growth, with 2012 signalling further increases in cargo volumes and, in some freight modes, a return to pre-downturn levels. Kazakhstan's total trade is projected to pick up, with the Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 6.81% in 2012 following estimated growth of 6.71% in 2011.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 5% in 2012. The sector almost defied the downturn, with freight falling by less than 2% in 2009 followed by 17% growth in 2010.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 6.0%;
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 4.4%;
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 4.5%;
- 2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 10.2%;
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 6.8%.
Key Industry Trends
A Sale of Stake In KedenTransService
Russian intermodal and logistics operator TransContainer's plan to capture rail freight trade between Asia and Europe is rolling forward, with the Russian Railways subsidiary acquiring a 67% stake in KedenTransService, a major rail freight player in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the state-owned rail operator, retains a 33% stake in KedenTransService, with the option to repurchase a 17% stake.
Port Of Aktau Freight Volumes Falling
Kazakhstan's Aktau International Commercial Sea Port registered a 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in freight volumes to 9.03mn tonnes in January-September 2011. In 2010, the port posted a 26.7% y-o-y jump in cargo throughput to 13.9mn tonnes.
Kazakhstan Welcomes New Freighter Services
Malaysian airfreight carrier MASkargo is expanding its global coverage by launching a service to Kazakhstan. BMI notes that Kazakhstan's Karagandy International Airport offers great potential as a transit hub for flights from Asia-Europe, and has already attracted some of the major air cargo players.
Baltic States Woo Kazakhstan With Maritime Gateway Solution
BMI once again highlights a trend of ports in the Baltic States, fearing that their major transit cargos from Russia are about to dry up, positioning themselves as a maritime gateway for Kazakh goods. Although Kazakhstan is rich in natural resources, its geographical position hinders the export of these goods.
GEFCO Group Expands Into Kazakhstan
France-based logistics specialist GEFCO Group which has a presence in some 150 countries, continued increasing its coverage of Central Asia with the opening of its first office in Kazakhstan. The company is attracted to the country because of its favourable geographic location at the centre of the Eurasian continent, allowing it to be a 'transit bridge' between Europe and Asia.
Chevron Starts Work At Caspian Pipeline As Kashagan Start-Up Is Delayed Further
The official start of work to expand the Caspian oil pipeline was announced by Chevron on July 1 2011. It will help add valuable export capacity ahead of planned volume rises at the Tengiz and Karachaganak projects.
Risks To Outlook
BMI highlights the freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the areas with risk to the upside. It is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes, on the back of a strengthening consumer base within Kazakhstan and the country's position on the rail route between China and Europe.
The Country Risk team expects Kazakhstan to continue enjoying rapid economic growth through 2011 and 2012, underpinned by ongoing development of the nation's vast natural resource base and the positive spillover effects this will have on the wider economy. BMI forecasts real economic growth of 7.2% and 6.9% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, and for the Kazakh economy to expand at an average rate of 6.6% per annum through to 2020.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 5% in 2012. The sector almost defied the downturn, with freight falling by less than 2% in 2009 followed by 17% growth in 2010.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 6.0%;
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 4.4%;
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 4.5%;
- 2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 10.2%;
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 6.8%.
Key Industry Trends
A Sale of Stake In KedenTransService
Russian intermodal and logistics operator TransContainer's plan to capture rail freight trade between Asia and Europe is rolling forward, with the Russian Railways subsidiary acquiring a 67% stake in KedenTransService, a major rail freight player in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the state-owned rail operator, retains a 33% stake in KedenTransService, with the option to repurchase a 17% stake.
Port Of Aktau Freight Volumes Falling
Kazakhstan's Aktau International Commercial Sea Port registered a 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in freight volumes to 9.03mn tonnes in January-September 2011. In 2010, the port posted a 26.7% y-o-y jump in cargo throughput to 13.9mn tonnes.
Kazakhstan Welcomes New Freighter Services
Malaysian airfreight carrier MASkargo is expanding its global coverage by launching a service to Kazakhstan. BMI notes that Kazakhstan's Karagandy International Airport offers great potential as a transit hub for flights from Asia-Europe, and has already attracted some of the major air cargo players.
Baltic States Woo Kazakhstan With Maritime Gateway Solution
BMI once again highlights a trend of ports in the Baltic States, fearing that their major transit cargos from Russia are about to dry up, positioning themselves as a maritime gateway for Kazakh goods. Although Kazakhstan is rich in natural resources, its geographical position hinders the export of these goods.
GEFCO Group Expands Into Kazakhstan
France-based logistics specialist GEFCO Group which has a presence in some 150 countries, continued increasing its coverage of Central Asia with the opening of its first office in Kazakhstan. The company is attracted to the country because of its favourable geographic location at the centre of the Eurasian continent, allowing it to be a 'transit bridge' between Europe and Asia.
Chevron Starts Work At Caspian Pipeline As Kashagan Start-Up Is Delayed Further
The official start of work to expand the Caspian oil pipeline was announced by Chevron on July 1 2011. It will help add valuable export capacity ahead of planned volume rises at the Tengiz and Karachaganak projects.
Risks To Outlook
BMI highlights the freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the areas with risk to the upside. It is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes, on the back of a strengthening consumer base within Kazakhstan and the country's position on the rail route between China and Europe.
The Country Risk team expects Kazakhstan to continue enjoying rapid economic growth through 2011 and 2012, underpinned by ongoing development of the nation's vast natural resource base and the positive spillover effects this will have on the wider economy. BMI forecasts real economic growth of 7.2% and 6.9% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, and for the Kazakh economy to expand at an average rate of 6.6% per annum through to 2020.
Contents:
Executive Summary
Headline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Risks To Outlook
SWOT Analysis
Baku-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline Industry SWOT
Industry Trends and Developments
Rail
Maritime
Air
Intermodal And Logistics
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2016
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
Inland Waterway Freight
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$’000 and % change y-o-y)
TABLE: KAZAKHSTAN'S MAIN IMPORT PARTNERS, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Kazakhstan's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Air Astana Cargo
Kazmortransflot
Kaztransservis (KTC)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources
Headline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Risks To Outlook
SWOT Analysis
Baku-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline Industry SWOT
Industry Trends and Developments
Rail
Maritime
Air
Intermodal And Logistics
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2016
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
Inland Waterway Freight
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$’000 and % change y-o-y)
TABLE: KAZAKHSTAN'S MAIN IMPORT PARTNERS, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Kazakhstan's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Air Astana Cargo
Kazmortransflot
Kaztransservis (KTC)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources
Companies Mentioned
- Air Astana Cargo
- Kazmortransflot
- Kaztransservis (KTC)
- Kazmortransflot
- Kaztransservis (KTC)
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