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Italy Freight Transport Report 2012
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 44
Business Monitor International's Italy Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Italy's freight transportation industry.
BMI is bearish on the Italian economy in 2012, expecting GDP growth to be under 1%; however, it expects the freight sector to hold up reasonably well in volume growth terms. Railfreight will grow by just under 10%, supported by the expansion of intra- and extra-European business, followed by airfreight (+6.8%), road (+5.1%), and port tonnage (in Genoa, for example, BMI forecasts growth of 4.3%).
Headline Industry Data
- Port of Genoa cargo volume set to rise by 4.3% to 59.104mn tonnes in 2012.
- Road haulage will grow by 5.1% to 1.71bn tonnes in 2012.
- Cargo volumes carried by rail will increase in 2012 by 9.5% to 102.7mn tonnes.
- In real terms Italy's trade growth will drop from 9.0% in 2011 to 6.5% in 2012.
Key Industry Trends
Port Of Gioia Tauro Adapts To Business Downturn
Following a decrease in container traffic levels, Medcenter Container Terminal (MCT), a subsidiary of Contship operating at the Port of Gioia Tauro, in August 2011 reached an agreement with its employees on a series of measures, including rotating layoffs, improving productivity and adopting measures to reduce absenteeism. Earlier trade unions had led a strike and blockade of the terminal in protest at proposed layoffs. Throughput at the MCT fell after Maersk Line moved its Asia-Europe transhipment hub to Malta and its Asia-Central Mediterranean hub to the Suez Canal Container Terminal in Port Said.
Cargoitalia Boosts Far East Service
Italian cargo airline Cargoitalia launched additional services to Hong Kong and Shanghai in March 2011. The airline began operating flights to Hong Kong four times a week, in addition to flights to Shanghai three times a week. The move would enable Cargoitalia to transport high-yield and time-critical cargo, according to its Commercial Director, Roberto Gilardoni.
Robot Defuses Genoa Radiation Scare
In August 2011 a robot was used to open a suspect container in Genoa, ending a safety scare triggered over a year earlier when the possible presence of radioactive isotope Cobalt-60 was detected. The operation confirmed that the container did indeed contain a 'small but powerful source of radiation' which has since been isolated. This development appears to lend weight to the US drive to increase container scanning at ports.
Key Risks To Outlook
BMI sees a number of significant downside risks to its forecasts. The most obvious and most serious is the looming sovereign debt crisis, which in the last quarter of 2011 was already seeing downgrades to Italy's credit ratings. Further deterioration in the country's financial standing in 2012 could begin to have a negative affect on freight turnover levels and on investment by commercial operators; this would mean lower demand for freight transport. There is also a significant political risk: while BMI still believes that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's time in frontline politics is drawing to an end, the opposition remains fragmented, limiting the possibility of a strong, credible coalition being formed after the next election.
Italy Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Italy Political SWOT
Italy Economic SWOT
Industry Trends and Developments
Table: Splashing The Cash For Infra Projects - Italy's Key Transport Infrastructure Projects
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016
Table: Maritime Freight, 2008-2016
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Italy's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Italy's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Italy Political Overview
Regional Political Outlook
Table: Eurozone Convergence Indicators
Table: Italy - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
The Grimaldi Group
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- The Grimaldi Group
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