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Algeria Autos Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 36
Business Monitor International's Algeria Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Algeria's automotive industry.
Figures released by the Association des Concessionaires Automobiles d’Algerie (ACAA) show that 226,073 new cars were sold in Algeria during the first nine months of 2011 (excluding sales figures from the local BMW, Great Wall Motors, Iveco and Mercedes-Benz dealerships). This represents an increase of 28.3% year on year (y-o-y) on the 171,991 cars sold in 9M10.
Looking at individual marques, Renault remains the dominant player in the Algerian market, selling 46,136 units over 9M11 under the Renault badge and a further 14,272 Dacia units. Taken together, this makes for a total of 60,408 units, or a market share of around 26.7%, which is down slightly on previous years. For the full year, Renault is reportedly targeting sales of at least 75,000 units. On current sales trends, it should easily surpass this across its Renault and Dacia brands.
Behind Renault is Hyundai Motor, which has experienced a very strong 2011. Hyundai vehicle sales stand at 36,411 units for 9M11, for a market share of 16.1%. In third place is Peugeot, on 25,377 units (11.2%). The top five is rounded out by Toyota Motor (20,426 units, 9%) and Chevrolet (17,024 units, 7.5%).
Given this stronger-than-expected performance over the first nine months of the year, BMI has decided to revise its sales forecast upwards for the full year. BMI now feel that a total of 295,279 new cars can be sold on the Algerian market in 2011, an increase of 21.8% y-o-y, with potential further upside risks to this figure should current strong growth trends be maintained.
Beyond the current year, BMI would anticipate continued upwards growth (of around 5% per annum) for vehicle sales, in line with a growing domestic economy. BMI forecast that total annual new vehicle sales should surpass 375,000 units in 2016. Moreover, if local car production takes off as BMI expect, BMI would anticipate making additional upwards revisions to our overall sales figures, as locally produced cars would likely be cheaper, thereby boosting domestic demand.
Renault to be producing in Algeria by 2013?
In October 2011, negotiations between the Algerian government and Renault over the opening of a new car manufacturing plant were said to be ‘well advanced’, according to local media reports. Although no date for the signing of a contract has yet been fixed, a government spokesman has said that some form of agreement is near.
The planned joint venture would reportedly see the French carmaker take a 49% stake in the project, with the remaining 51% to be held by a variety of Algerian interests. These would most likely involve both private and public sector concerns. If a deal can be signed before year-end, then Minister for Industry, SMEs and Investment Promotion, Mohamed Benmeradi, is hopeful that the first ‘Algerian car’ could be produced within 18 months.
The first phase of production should see 75,000 vehicles produced by the factory, according to Benmeradi, rising to 150,000 in a second stage of development.
The authorities also remain in negotiations with German carmaker Volkswagen (VW) over the potential commencement of autos production within Algeria. So far, two meetings have been held between the two sides, with VW reportedly currently considering a recent technical proposal put to it by the Algerian government.
While BMI had already expected Morocco and Algeria to evolve into viable alternative production bases to rival Egypt, the risk associated with the political turmoil in the latter state could accelerate the process. The introduction of industry incentives, planned by the previous government to boost production and develop the supplier segment in Egypt is now uncertain, while the wider business environment is not conducive to foreign direct investment at this time. BMI also sees valuable sales growth potential in the two markets: with average annual growth over 2011-2016 of at least 7% in Algeria and 12% in Morocco.
Market Overview Renault remains the market leader in the country by a comfortable margin. The French firm, operating under its local sales and distribution subsidiary Renault Algérie, sold a total of 63,359 new vehicles in Algeria in 2010, inclusive of 44,786 vehicles under its main banner, and 18,573 vehicles belonging to the Automobile Dacia brand. This amounts to a combined market share of 28.5% of new vehicle sales in Algeria for the year. There is a considerable gap between Renault Algérie and the number two autos company operating in Algeria, Hyundai Motor. The Japanese firm sold 31,681 vehicles through its local distributor Hyundai Motor Algérie in 2010, giving it a market share of 14.3%. In third place is Peugeot, which sold 22,839 vehicles in 2010, for a market share of 10.3%. In fourth place is Toyota Algérie, which sold a total of 21,389 vehicles (19,453 under its main banner, plus a further 1,936 Daihatsu models), for a market share of 9.6%, with Chevrolet rounding up the top five, with 2010 sales of 19,810 units giving the US car company a market share of 8.9%. This report includes SWOT analyses for both Renault Algérie and Toyota Algérie.
Algeria Autos Industry SWOT
Industry Trend Analysis – Economic Woes Weigh On Car Demand
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-August 2011
Slowdown: Blame It On Outsiders
Regional Overview Trade Data Confirms Regional Potential For Suppliers
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Algeria – Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Algeria Autos Sector Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Algeria Car Sales By Brand H111
Table: Algeria – Registered Car Sales
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
- Toyota Motor
- Renault Algérie
- Hyundai Moto
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