China Real Estate Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 63
Business Monitor International's China Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's Real Estate industry.
The measures introduced by the Chinese government to cool the bubble in the residential property market continue to dominate the overall real estate picture for the country. Recently reports have indicated that activity in the commercial sector has increased hugely in the wake of developers looking for alternative investment routes to the stalling residential sector. As a result, concerns have also arisen about the potential for a commercial price bubble.
The office sector in particular is booming at present, with all sources reporting an increase in both rental levels and take-up of space so far in the second half of 2011. Retail rates also remain robust, although a number of sources fear there is a glut of retail space as a vast number of new shopping malls are sprouting up across the country. The picture for the industrial sub-sector is that demand currently exceeds supply, but activity is expected to increase as manufacturers continue to search for prime locations in emerging markets, implying that BMI could see a surge of new development in the coming years.
Key Opportunities In The Real Estate Market:
Economic growth may have slowed throughout 2011, but it is still strong compared to other global economic powerhouses and shows China to be resilient even in the face of the austerity measures the residential market is experiencing.
Overseas investors are increasing their interest in the Asia Pacific region, as markets in the US and eurozone are deemed less stable for development at present. China, as one of the region's largest markets, stands to benefit greatly from this.
In the short term, the commercial sector has benefited from the government's cooling measures, where developers are increasing their exposure in order to avoid reliance on the residential market.
Key Risks To The Real Estate Market:
- Fears are rising that the commercial sector will be the next to experience a bubble due to increased investor interest adding pressure to that market.
- Lack of access to funding is causing real estate companies to reduce their prices in an attempt to increase sales, and this has sparked sporadic protests from homeowners who bought their properties at the peak of the bubble, particularly in Shanghai.
- Domestic property developers have begun to seek financing in Hong Kong amid tightening macroeconomic policies in mainland China.
- The government's efforts to slow the housing market are creeping into other development areas. In August 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission banned the construction of theme parks.
- Government spending on large infrastructure projects is under review as an investigation on all current projects is under way, following the train collision in Zhejiang province in July 2011.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
China Real Estate/Construction
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Real Estate Market Analysis
Table: China's Real Estate Market – Historic Rents, 2010 and 2011 (per m2/month, CNY)
Table: China's Real Estate Market – Net Yield, 2011 And 2012 (%)
Table: China's Real Estate Market – Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2011
Table: China's Real Estate Market – Available And Vacant Space, Mid-2011 (m2)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Real Estate Outlook
Table: China's Real Estate Market – Rentals, 2011-2012 (per m2/month, CNY)
Table: China's Real Estate Market – Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2015 (%)
Construction Industry Outlook
Table: china Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: china Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: China – Economic Activity
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Table: Real Estate Business Environment Ratings
China's Business Environment
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Institutions
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating Infrastructure
Table: Labour Force Quality
Market Orientation
Table: Asia, Annual Fdi Inflows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Table: China Top Export Destinations
Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
China Merchants Group/China Merchants Property Development (CMPD) – SWOT Analysis
China Vanke – SWOT Analysis
Gemdale Corporation – SWOT Analysis
Poly Real Estate Group – SWOT Analysis
Shanghai Industrial Development – SWOT Analysis
Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone – SWOT Analysis
Shanghai New Huangpu Real Estate
Shanghai Wanye – SWOT Analysis
Shimao Property Holdings – SWOT Analysis
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- China Merchants Group/China Merchants Property Development (CMPD)
- China Vanke
- Gemdale Corporation
- Poly Real Estate Group
- Shanghai Industrial Development
- Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone
- Shanghai New Huangpu Real Estate
- Shanghai Wanye
- Shimao Property Holdings
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