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LNG Propulsion - 2012 and Beyond
MEC Intelligence, Oct 2011, Pages: 70
An Insight Report on LNG as a Marititme Fuel
In-depth analysis, insightful forecasts & comprehensive coverage: this report cuts across the scepticism and complexity surrounding the adoption of LNG in the shipping industry.
Driven by stringent environment regulations, lower costs, and technical advances - LNG propulsion in ships will experience huge growth and can potentially command an installed base of 10,000 vessels by 2020 - creating base for a massive adoption.
The current small base of the industry is unique opportunity for companies to position themselves to not only ride the technological wave, but also differentiate and gain market share in the largely commoditised equipment and services market.
This report eliminates uncertainty surrounding the industry to forecast scale and timing of development of the opportunity based on comprehensive analysis of the price development, infrastructure availability, and regulatory trends.
KEY FEATURES
Scope by Vessel Fleet
LNG propulsion on ships is an emerging technology which is currently making inroads in select segments of the shipping fleet. In order to build a cogent understanding of the developments, the study analyses the growth of the technology across segments in the shipping fleet for both the new build and retrofit.
Further, the forecast looks at the market comprehensively to include ships which are both dual fuel engine and gas based propulsion engine.
Geographic Focus
The study covers developments in LNG propulsion globally. The report identifies current and future development in environment regulations regionally; and covers the consequences of these developments individually in each region. The overall forecast builds on the “bottom-up” aggregation of these regional developments – resulting in high accuracy and confidence in the forecasts.
Process of Forecast (Overview)
- The forecast is based on a mix of desktop analysis using MEC Intelligence's proprietary forecasts in fleet development and a large number of interviews with players in the maritime industry such as shipping companies, fuel companies, and component manufacturers.
- MEC Intelligence analysed the economics for ship owners considering several options for compliance with the SOx, NOx emission regulations for various types of ships on multiple routes. From this analysis, vessel types were shortlisted - whose owners will have a high leverage for using LNG propulsion as compared to the alternatives for compliance with the environment regulations.
- For the shortlisted vessel categories, MEC Intelligence identified the traffic and new addition of such vessels till 2020 on various routes and used the total figure in alignment with preference for the technology based on interviews with industry professionals to compute the market figure.
- A large number of interviews were also conducted for building the economic models as well, and, the figures are backed by an exhaustive study of the market.
Basic Assumptions
- The headline forecasts of the report are based on the ratification of the proposed emission levels in ECA and other related environment regulations by IMO as scheduled.
- Considering the uncertainty in the ratification of the IMO regulations, projections are also provided for scenario where the ratifications are not done as per the schedule.
- It is assumed that the development of unconventional resources of natural gas will continue as planned.
WHO SHOULD BUY THIS REPORT
This report is a must read for companies in the entire value chain of maritime industry, investors, and energy companies for unmatched insights in the topic.
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