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Philippines Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 125
Business Monitor International's Philippines Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Philippines's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q112 report on the Philippines telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments n the country’s mobile, fixed-line telephony and internet sectors. During this quarter, BMI's five-year growth forecasts for these different sectors extended through to the end of 2016. Otherwise, BMI has kept its forecasts largely unchanged, with the latest operator data appearing to confirm expected trends.
BMI’s analysis and forecasts for the Philippines’ mobile telephony sector is based on data published by the Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT), Globe Telecom and Digital Telecommunications Philippines (Digitel). By the end of June 2011 there were almost 91.3mn mobile subscribers in the Philippines, up from just over 86mn at the end of 2010 and 84.17mn in June 2010. The industry added over 3.23mn mobile subscribers in the three months to June 2011, making Q211 by far the strongest quarter for growth since Q210. Despite the strong growth in Q211, BMI maintains its belief that the market is approaching saturation point. As the market becomes more saturated, the operators will be compelled to focus more on the postpaid segment.
BMI's mobile subscriber forecast for the Philippines expects average annual growth of 4.4% in the five years to the end of 2016. BMI forecasts the market to grow to over 117mn mobile subscribers at the end of 2016; this would be equivalent to a mobile penetration rate of almost 114%.
In August 2011 a Philippines’ Senate committee approved PLDT’s plan to acquire a majority stake in rival operator Digitel for around PHP70bn, saying the deal was ‘consistent with its legislative franchise and in the interest of the public’. In a 12-page report, the committee concluded that the merger constitutes part of the normal course of action between two businesses in the local telecoms industry. Further, concerning the issue that the PLDT-Digitel merger breaches local laws on monopolies and cartels, the report found that ‘there is effectively no comprehensive anti-trust legislation in the Philippines’. Despite getting parliamentary approval, BMI has expressed concern that the acquisition of Digitel by PLDT will likely result in a market which is dominated by a single major operator.
Other noteworthy developments in the Philippines telecoms market includes the announcement in September that broadband operator Bayan Telecommunications had its permit to operate a cellular mobile telephone system (CMTS) network extended up to November 7 2013 by the country’s regulator. The extension will allow the operator to continue installing cell sites to meet permit obligations and prepare for the launch of next-generation LTE services following major rivals Smart Communications and Globe Telecom.
During this quarter the Philippines dropped from 11th to 12th position in BMI’s telecoms business environment ratings for the for Asia Pacific region. The Philippines now scores 49.7 overall, down from 51.1 in BMI's previous update. Although the country is at the bottom half of BMI's ratings table. The market is still relatively attractive when compared with alternative emerging markets in the region.
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