Italy Agribusiness Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 60
Italy Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Italy's agribusiness service.
Production for corn and barley are expected to progress gradually in 2011/12 but wheat output should still decline as farmers switch crops. With only anaemic GDP growth of 0.7% forecast in 2012 with the potential of being further reduced depending on the outcome of the ongoing debt crisis, we are not optimistic towards consumption.
Key Forecasts
- Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 10% to 6.88mn tonnes.
- Rice production growth to 2015/16: 3.8% to 1.68mn tonnes.
- Poultry consumption growth to 2016: 21.0% to 1.21mn tonnes.
- 2012f real GDP growth: 0.7% ave (compared to 0.8% in 2011).
- 2012f Consumer price index: 1.8% ave (down from 2.6% in 2011).
- 2012f Central Bank Policy Rate: 2.0% (up from 1.75% in 2011)
Industry Developments
In September 2011, an outbreak of Anthrax was reported to the OIE by the Department for Veterinary Public Health, Nutrition and Food Safety, Ministry of Health. Since then, there have been nearly 20 outbreaks of anthrax reported among cattle and farm animals. More than 220 animals have been found infected, with the mortality rate coming in at slightly higher than 100%.
Major Italian agrigroup Granarolo has expanded its presence in the dairy products industry through the acquisition of the country's third largest producer of fresh cheeses, Lat Bri. Granarolo will benefit from this deal in three main ways. Firstly, Granarolo's presence in the fresh dairy products market segment.
This is so as all units of Lat Bri's milk production and marketing of fresh milk production will be handed over and will also pay for the company's yet-to-be-confirmed EUR60mn in debt. This will benefit analyst forecasts that Granarolo's management of Lat Bri activities could generate a turnover of around EUR150mn annually, helping to double the revenues of the company's cheese segment to more than EUR300mn (it was EUR160mn in 2010). Another advantage will be increasing overseas Granarolo's presence as Lat Bri currently enjoys a strong presence in retail distribution and integration with new product lines. Lastly, Granarolo will benefit from the technological industrial structure of Lat Bri. Lat Bri's facility in Usmate Velate (Monza) occupies a total of 30,000 square feet and can process around 40,000 tonnes of dairy products, mainly mozzarella, ricotta, mascarpone and simmilar fresh cheeses.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Italy Agricultural SWOT
Italy Political SWOT
Italy Economic SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
Italy Grains Outlook
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Italy Rice Outlook
Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Italy Dairy Outlook
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Italy Livestock Outlook
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Corn
Rice
Soybean
Wheat
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa
Coffee
Palm Oil
Sugar
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2015
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2008-2015
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type
Trade
Table: Trade Balance -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Activity
Table: Italy - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Confidence Crisis Could Tip Region Into Recession
The Final Countdown
Industry Trend Analysis
Report Highlights Difficulties In Italian Grocery Retailing
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q4 2011
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Product Samples
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