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Lebanon Food and Drink Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 58
Lebanon Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Lebanon's food and drink industry.
Lebanon's economy is set to slow through 2011 and into 2012 as a combination of elevated commodity prices and a spike in political risk weighs on consumption and investment patterns. Headline food consumption is, therefore, expected to experience only modest growth as both the global slowdown and regional political crisis are beginning to filter through into weaker domestic economic activity. Accordingly, we have downgraded our forecast for real GDP growth for 2011 to 1.6% from 3.3% previously.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales = +12.8%; forecast to 2016 = +78.7%
- 2011 hypermarket sales = +16.1%; forecast to 2016 = +41%
- 2011 soft drink sales = +5.8%; forecast to 2016 = +32.1%
- 2011 food a drink exports = +7.5%; forecast to 2016 = +39%
Key Company Trends
New Food Safety Framework – In summer 2011 Lebanese government ministers agreed on a new food safety framework after being spurred into action by a television programme about Lebanon's food industry and the H111 E.coli outbreak in Europe. Ministers from the health, agriculture, tourism, economy and industry ministries are to implement short-term and medium-term measures to help improve food safety.
Carrefour MAF Reportedly Looking at Lebanon – Carrefour and the UAE-based Majid al-Futtaim (MAF), its exclusive franchise partner in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), have developed a strong partnership over the years. Carrefour MAF has done well in the Gulf region, where it is a leading operator of hypermarkets – a format that is particularly popular in MENA. It is believed to now be keen to expand into the wider regions, into the likes of Iraq and Lebanon. Although the country is one of the few regional markets to offer neither a high-spending consumer base nor a large and populous market, with organised retailing still so underdeveloped there remain opportunities for companies like Carrefour MAF.
Key Risks to Outlook
Given Lebanon's reliance on foreign capital to finance domestic demand, a marked deterioration in regional or global capital markets over the coming quarters could slow financial inflow, which would negatively impact growth.
Ongoing unrest in Syria poses a distinct risk to Lebanon's economic and political stability. A prolonged period of public unrest would not only increase refugee inflows, but would also result in a significant slowdown in much needed tourist arrivals.
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