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Ireland Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 91
Ireland Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ireland's telecommunications industry.
In this Q112 update of the Ireland Telecommunications Report, BMI has extended to 2016 forecasts for growth in the country's fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets. These amended forecasts are based on the latest data submitted for analysis by the country's leading network operators and service providers as well as the national regulatory body and trade associations. As before, the key take-away is that fixed-line access usage is declining, from a narrowband and a broadband perspective, while growth in the mobile market has stalled due to a combination of market saturation, economic uncertainty weighing on consumer spending and a change of focus as operators aim to grow the value of existing customers rather than chasing the few consumers they do not yet serve.
The real surprise arising from the examination of H111 results was that mobile broadband growth had slowed markedly in Q211, meaning that we have had to scale back growth expectations for the mobile market at large as well as the broadband market, where mobile has been the primary driver of growth for some time. We now expect slower expansion over the 2011-2013 period, with both markets set to receive a welcome boost from 2014 as 4G LTE networks enter operation and as eircom completes key stages of a new fibre-to-the-home/fibre-to-the-cabinet (FTTH/FTTC) project. We now expect the mobile subscriber base to rise to 5.376mn by 2016 while broadband subscriber numbers will reach 2.043mn by the same year.
Incumbent eircom faced an uncertain future at the time of writing as it breached key debt repayment agreements with its principal shareholders in 2011 and was unable to report any financial or operating data past March 2011. It seemed increasingly likely that the company would be sold to help pay off those debts and rumours suggested that the owner of Caribbean-centric mobile operator Digicel would step in to rescue the company. It was also reported that Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa would table an offer, although this seemed unlikely given that Hutchison is streamlining its international telecommunications portfolio. The next few months could prove vital in determining the future of Ireland's biggest telecoms player.
By the end of 2011 the regulator is expected to have firmed up plans to refarm mobile operators' existing spectrum holdings and to make clear its position on offering frequencies that could be used to offer socalled 4G services, most likely using LTE technology standards. BMI welcomes moves to license 4G services in Ireland but cautions that, under current financial and economic pressures, spectrum auctions may yield relatively low bids from interested parties, despite the fact that usage of mobile broadband services remains robust. With that in mind, we will be watching Ireland's economic recovery with considerable interest.
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