Serbia Freight Transport Report 2012
- ID: 1998977
- November 2011
- Region: Serbia
- 39 Pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI forecasts growth across all freight modes in Serbia in 2011, followed by more moderate growth in 2012.
Total trade is projected to continue picking up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (yo- y) increase of 11.6% in 2012 following an estimated growth of 16.3% in 2011.
Rail freight will continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by further 0.7% in 2012. The sector did not escape the effects of the downturn, but quickly recovered its pre-2009 freight volumes. BMI notes that road was the only mode in Serbia's freight transport mix which did not experience a decrease in volumes during the downturn. We predict further growth throughout our mid-term forecast period (2011-2016).
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.1%.
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 0.7%.
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 12.8%.
- 2012 inland waterway freight throughput is forecast to grow by 13.6%.
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 11.6%.
Key Industry Trends
Road Infrastructure Projects On Schedule
There are several projects currently underway to improve Serbia's road infrastructure. In 2011 the Serbian section of the pan-European Corridor X and Belgrade's largest bridge were being reconstructed, while a new bridge across the Danube was being built near Beska. The reconstruction of Gazela, Belgrade's largest bridge, which is also part of Corridor X, is scheduled for completion by mid-February 2012. The work is being financed in part by European Investment Bank (EUR33mn) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EUR25mn).
More Funds For Pan-European Corridor X Rail Link
Railway Corridor X is being upgraded with additional funds from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). In June 2011, it announced that a EUR200mn loan would be granted by the end of the year for the development of Serbia's railway network.
Serbian Railways Re-organisation And Upgrades
State-owned Serbian Railways changed its legal form following a decision by the Serbian government on May 26 2011. Rather than a public Enterprise, it is now a closed joint stock company. The company planned to create a special subsidiary responsible for freight transport and a programme to repair its freight wagons continued in March 2011.
JAT Airways Restructuring Saga Continues
Serbia continues to attempt to sell or find an investor for JAT Airways. Limited interest had been shown in the airline as the end of the latest tender was approaching.
Airport Projects On Time
There are currently two airport projects underway in Serbia. The first, Morava, is being built in Kraljevo on the grounds of the Ladjevci military base and the airport is expected to start operations by the end of October. A runway lengthening programme is planned to be completed before summer 2012. The country's latest airport project is the construction of Užice Airport, also located on the grounds of a military airbase.
Intermodal And Postal/Logistics Projects
The construction of an intermodal terminal in Batajnica, near Belgrade, is scheduled begin in March 2012, while a new international, regional and local postal and logistics centre in Zemun, near Belgrade, has been under construction since end of 2010.
Risks To Outlook
BMI highlights that freight modes exposed to the transport of containers have a moderate risk to the upside. It is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes on the back of a possible strengthening of the consumer base within Serbia. Household expenditure has remained firmly in recessionary territory, and BMI's Country Risk desk expects only a gradual recovery in consumer spending.
Serbia's economic recovery continues to rest on external demand and, to a growing extent, investment expenditure. Improving macroeconomic fundamentals and economic restructuring should provide the basis for average annual GDP growth of 4.5% between 2011 and 2015. A significant slowdown in external demand would present a downside risk to our economic growth and freight forecasts for Serbia. The country's economic recovery has been led mainly by exports on account of depressed private consumption and ongoing government fiscal austerity measures.
Business Monitor International's Serbia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's freight transportation industry. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
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Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
Inland Waterway Freight
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2008-2016
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Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Serbia's Main Import Partners, 2005-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Serbia's Main Export Partners, 2005-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Serbia – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Železnice Srbije (Serbian Railways)
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Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000/01
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts