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Poland Telecom Intelligence Report: The Thirst for Data Fuels a Consolidating and Maturing Market
Pyramid Research, Inc, Dec 2011
After a 2% decline in local currency in 2010, we expect the Polish market to grow 1.7% year-on-year and generate Zl 40.2bn ($14bn) in service revenue. Looking ahead, we project that the market will grow at a 2.7% CAGR (3.5% CAGR in USD), exhibiting a cumulative revenue opportunity of Zl 255bn ($89bn) in the 2011–2016 period. This growth will be propelled by growth in the data segment: mobile data (12% local currency CAGR) and broadband (7.9% CAGR), impelled by increasing popularity and availability of smartphones, tablets and other connected devices, as well as LTE and HSPA+ network proliferation, and growing NGN rollouts, partially subsidized by the EC.
The telecom market has gone into another evolution stage, with more cooperation between former rivals ? including UPC’s acquisition of Aster, Zygmunt Solorz-Zak’s purchase of Polkomtel (Plus), Netia’s acquisition of Dialog and Crowley (the transaction is subject to UOKiK approval), Cyfrowy Polsat acquiring Info-TV-FM, TP Group’s partnership with TVN Group, and Centertel (Orange) and PTC’s (T-Mobile/Era) establishment of a joint venture company for shared network operation. We expect further mergers and acquisitions with the structure of the telecom and media markets evolving substantially in the medium term.
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