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Belgium Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 40
Business Monitor International's Belgium Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belgium's freight transportation industry.
BMI is predicting a moderate to good year for the Belgium freight transport industry in 2012. some industry sub-sectors will retain a degree of dynamism. These include air freight which, supported by the role of Brussels airport as an important European hub, will see volume growth of 8.4%, and the Port of Antwerp, also a significant European gateway, which will see cargo tonnage growth of 5.1%. Traditional land-based transport modes will have a much flatter year, with rail freight set to expand by less than 1%, and road haulage expected to contract by 0.5%. Inland waterway freight will grow by 1.1%.
Headline Industry Data
- Air freight tonnage growth to moderate in 2012, expanding by 8.4% (compared to 12.5% in 2011) to reach 1.19mn tonnes.
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow 0.7%, down from 1.7% in 2011%.
? 2012 road freight to contract by 0.5% to 298.3mn tonnes; it will continue to fall marginally in the mid term as efforts are made to shift cargo to other modes such as rail.
- Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow 1.1% in 2012, with medium-term growth to continue at roughly the same level to 2016.
- 2012 Port of Antwerp throughput is forecast at 5.1%, ahead of GDP, with medium-term growth of 5.0% per annum
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 4.1%.
Key Industry Trends
Green Light For Multimodal Logistics Hub
Plans for Trilogiport, a multimodal logistics hub designed to act as a gateway to the ports of Antwerp, Rotterdam and Zeebrugge, have been given the green light. The proposal includes links to river, rail and road transport systems. Government and EU funding of EUR45mn, plus a further EUR115mn from the private sector, is on the table. A container terminal within the complex will be operated by Euroports and DP World. Construction work is due to start in early 2012.
Good Nine-Month Performance At Antwerp
Total cargo volume handled at the Port of Antwerp was up by 7.6% year-on-year to 142mn tonnes in January-September 2011. The biggest increase was for break-bulk cargo, with growth strongest in the first half of the year before easing in Q311. The completion of a dredging project to enable the latest mega-vessels to call at the port is seen as a positive, keeping something of an edge in Antwerp's battle with its main rival, the Dutch port of Rotterdam. But BMI still expects Rotterdam to retain its position as Europe's top port.
Industrial Action Affects Rail Network
A strike by Belgian rail staff in October 2011 could cloud the otherwise marginally positive outlook for rail freight growth. Unions were protesting against proposed rail freight reforms that could see the loss of hundreds of jobs.
Key Risks To Outlook
There are two main risks to BMIs Belgium freight forecasts, both on the downside. The first, and lesser of the two, is that the country's long-running political crisis will take a turn for the worse, causing uncertainty and a loss of business confidence in the transport sector. The crisis involves a range of disagreements on electoral boundaries, fiscal policy, and devolution issues between the Flemish community in Flanders and the French-speaking community in Wallonia, which have prevented the formation of a coalition government since the June 2010 elections. The country has continued to operate under a caretaker administration since.
The more serious risk is of contagion from the European sovereign debt crisis. Belgium itself is a highly leveraged economy (its national debt is close to 100% of GDP), meaning that public sector financial reform is a high priority. The government has had to pledge EUR4bn to rescue Dexia bank. The risk here is that the debt crisis and associated financial disruption could lead to a renewed economic downturn and sharply falling freight demand.
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