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Strategic Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies in the European Diesel Locomotive and Railcar Market
Frost & Sullivan, Nov 2011, Pages: 135
The research service provides an analysis of the European diesel locomotive and diesel railcar market and focuses on powertrain technologies to be used. Many technologies will see immediate application to cope with stringent emission norms stipulated by the European Union. The study segments the market by engine power and identifies the opportunities for new locomotives/railcars in each of these segments. It further provides an in-depth trend, forecast and penetration analysis of various powertrain technologies. The study also throws light on the various alternative technologies that will see increased adoption and their impact on the overall diesel locomotive/railcar market from 2010 to 2020.
This Frost & Sullivan research service titled Strategic Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies in the European Diesel Locomotive and Railcar Market analyses market dynamics and trends and projects the future outlook for the market. It also examines the opportunities available to different members of the value chain. In this research, Frost & Sullivan's expert analysts thoroughly examine the following market sectors: diesel locomotives and railcars.
Market Overview
Looming Emission Norm Deadlines Motivate Advances in Powertrain Technology for Diesel Locomotives and Railcars
The European stage IIIB emission directive for locomotives and railcars will be effective from the end of 2012. Stage IIIB norms require NOX and PM reduction of about 90.0 per cent from stage IIIA levels. Rolling stock and engine manufacturers are planning to use technologies such as exhaust gas recirculation to meet the emission norms. However, as competition heightens, additional alternative technologies are making their way into the rolling stock diesel powertrain. In all, 10,862 diesel locomotives and 9,314 diesel railcars (new orders and replacements combined) are expected to be delivered by 2020 across Europe.
“The increasing operational and maintenance costs of ageing fleet are pushing operators to place orders for new rolling stock, allowing allow for the replacement of locomotives and railcars that are close to retirement,” notes the analyst of this research. “Frost & Sullivan analysis has identified 2,326 diesel locomotives in France and Germany alone that are nearing or have crossed 40 years of service.” The average age of all diesel locomotives in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom is approximately 37 years. There are 10,298 diesel locomotives in these countries that have been in active service for more than 30 years. As fuel costs have risen sharply in recent years, operators and leasing companies are aiming to procure the most energy-efficient and economic rolling stock in their fleet.
Novel Technologies and Business Strategies to Define Market Landscape
“Manufacturers feel that the cost of retrofitting a locomotive with a new engine, transmission and control systems are almost the same as purchasing a new state-of-the-art current generation locomotive,” remarks the analyst. “However, the biggest disconnect occurs between the demand for locomotives that the operators can afford and the supply that the manufacturers can deliver.” The major challenge faced by the diesel rolling stock industry is to accurately determine market size. Identification of market demand based on ageing stock, requirements and purchasing capabilities of budget-driven leasing agencies, operators and end users is a critical challenge for rail manufacturers.
To meet competition, manufacturers are offering new technologies in their rolling stock. It is expected that technologies like permanent magnet traction motors will become an industry standard by 2017. Manufacturers are incorporating new strategies in their business models as well. “Standardisation of design platforms for locomotives and railcars has gained prominence, eliminating the need for individual designs,” concludes the analyst. “They are being shipped off-the-shelf as they have now moved to modular concepts where changes in the product are made as per order requirements.”
Market Sectors
Expert Frost & Sullivan analysts thoroughly examine the following market sectors in this research:
- Diesel locomotives
- Diesel railcars
By Country:
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- United Kingdom
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