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Belarus Defence and Security Report 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 92
The Belarus Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belarus's defence and security industry.
In 2011 BMI estimates that the Belarusian government will have a defence expenditure of US$692mn. This is down significantly by 22% on 2010's figure of US$886mn, as the Belarusian government cuts defence spending in response to economic pressures. The Belarusian economy is experiencing quite significant problems due to broader global economic problems and growing political tension with Moscow. The country is unusually dependent on Moscow for international support and economic investment, making the split troubling for economic activity.
The Lukashenko government has been forced to hunt abroad for new friends, after the souring of relations with Moscow and the continued rejection by the EU. A major new source of assistance for the country has become China, which is interested in securing a greater presence in Europe. In September 2011 it was announced that the Chinese government would provide a US$1bn ‘soft loan' to the Belarusians, in order to assist with the country's current account deficit crisis. As part of the loan terms, Belarus is reciprocating by allowing the sale of stakes in certain firms to Chinese companies.
The structure of the Belarusian defence industry may be about to take a new turn with indications coming from the government that defence industries will be expected to survive on a commercial basis. The most obvious example of this shift came in late October 2011, after President Lukashenko gave a speech in which he said that the role of the state in the defence industry would have to be limited if it were to truly thrive. The threat of an immediate cut to state support is limited, however, with his insistence that any such withdrawal would be phased in.
In positive new, Belarus has won a major contract to provide military helicopter maintenance in Nigeria as part of a broader agreement which will see Belarus open up an embassy in Abuja. The key decisions on this Nigerian-Belarusian relationship upgrade were taken at a meeting between Major General Siarhei Barysionak, the head of the Belarusian military exports agency, and the permanent secretary at the Nigerian Ministry of Defence, Linus Awute. It is expected that the embassy will open in early 2012 while work on helicopter maintenance facilities will begin in the coming months.
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