India Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 101
Business Monitor International's India Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's oil and gas industry.
BMI View:
While India's upstream oil prospects appear to be limited, the discovery and ongoing development of significant gas resources has changed the import picture for the better, but has thrown the gas sector into turmoil as the industry struggles to assess its future LNG needs. Demand trends remain healthy, requiring continued investment in refining capacity and a growing reliance on foreign crude.
The main trends and developments BMI highlights for India's Oil and Gas sector are:
- India's average oil and liquids production for 2011 is assumed by BMI to have been 1.04mn barrels per day (b/d). BMI is predicting 1.06mn b/d of peak production in 2012, which is expected to decline to 950,000b/d by 2016. Given forecast consumption of 4.29mn b/d, implied 2016 oil imports are 3.34mn b/d. BMI's demand outlook suggests that consumption of an estimated 3.44mn b/d in 2011 will rise steadily to 4.29mn b/d by 2016.
- Gas demand is rising fast, with India developing gas-fired power stations. Consumption has risen more than 160% since 1995. Average annual demand growth of at least 6% is forecast over the next several years, accelerating as domestic field development and LNG import deals mean more gas is available. BMI is assuming that 2011 gas production will have been around 50bn cubic metres (bcm). BMI is predicting total gas consumption of around 81bcm in 2016, up from an estimated 58bcm in 2011.
- Regional gas producer GSPC has received approval from the country's Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) to develop the Deen Dayal gas field in the KG Basin. The field, which is estimated to hold reserves of around 56.6bcm, was discovered in 2005. Gas production from Deen Dayal is expected to reach an annualised 2.1-3.1bcm. The field covers an area of around 125sq km and is located in the southern part of the block.
- State-controlled oil and gas producer ONGC has released its estimate for total gas volumes at its discoveries in the deep water DWN 98/2 block in the KG Basin. ONGC said on June 22 2011 that the block holds initial in-place gas reserves of 101bcm. The company said it believes the discoveries in the northern portion of the block are commercial and that a 'declaration of commerciality', which was submitted in July 2010, is being considered by upstream regulator DGH.
- At time of writing, BMI assumes an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.40/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010 reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is put at 3.6%.
- The cost of Indian crude imports in 2011 is assumed by BMI to have been US$89.5bn, and should total US$113.6bn in 2016. Net gas imports are expected to have cost US$4.10bn in 2011, potentially falling to US$2.68bn by 2016, dependent on domestic field development and LNG import commitments. India's petroleum imports bill could reach US$116.3bn by 2021.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
India Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 000b/d, 2008-2015
Global Oil Production, 000b/d
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016
Oil: Downstream
Table: Refining Capacity, 2009-2016
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016
Liquefied Natural Gas
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Gas Imports (bcm), 2009-2016
India Energy Market Overview
Table: Upstream Projects
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Unconventional Gas
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Table: India Oil & Gas – Historical Data and Forecasts
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In India
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In India
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Region
Regional Risk/Rewards Ratings
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating
Regional Upstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
India Upstream Rating – Overview
India Upstream Rating – Rewards
India Upstream Rating – Risks
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating
India Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – India Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing and Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)
Reliance Industries
Oil India Ltd (OIL)
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL)
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)
GAIL (India)
Cairn India
Essar Oil
Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation
Petronet LNG
BP – Summary
BG Group – Summary
Shell – Summary
Total – Summary
Oilex – Summary
Eni – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Oil Production, 000b/d Long-Term forecasts
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term forecasts
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Gas Production Long-Term forecasts
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)
- Reliance Industries
- Oil India Ltd (OIL)
- Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL)
- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)
- GAIL (India)
- Cairn India
- Essar Oil
- Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation
- Petronet LNG
- BP
- BG Group
- Shell
- Total
- Oilex
- Eni
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