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Turkey Retail Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 59
BMI's Q112 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country's retail sales will grow by nearly 14% by 2015, from TRY304.02bn (US$233.43bn) in 2011, to TRY344.83bn (US$264.76bn). Underlying economic growth, an expanding population, especially in urban areas, rising levels of disposable income, and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are all key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales, which should expand an average 3.6% per annum throughout the forecast period.
Turkey's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$743.30bn in 2011, with growth of 7.0% expected, down on 2010's 8.9%. BMI predicts average annual GDP growth of 5.5% is between 2011 and 2015. With the population increasing from 73.6mn in 2011 to a forecast 77.0mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by nearly 80% to US$18,107 by the end of the period.
Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 11.4% in 2010. We forecast a drop to 10.0% in 2011, and to 6.5% by the end of the forecast period.
In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 44.1% in the 20-44 age range, an important category for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population were classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.2% in the 20-44 age band, and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active.
BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 19.8% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$46.12bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow by nearly 71%, to US$78.67bn by 2015. Our forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 29.7% by 2015.
Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales are forecast to reach US$16.01bn in 2011, and to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period - by nearly 100% - to US$32.01bn by 2015. Turkey's MGR sector is far from saturated, with room remaining in urban centres and secondary cities, as demand from a young, growing and increasingly affluent population increases. BMI forecasts that MGR's share of the overall food market will rise from 34.7% in 2011, to 40.7% by the end of the review period. Automotive sales are forecast to rise from 921,924 units in 2011, to 1.35mn units by 2015. We stand by our view that robust domestic demand in Turkey will make its auto market a significant performer in Europe during the remainder of our forecast period.
Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase from US$8.71bn in 2011, to US$14.65bn by the end of the forecast period. Consumer electronics spend per capita is projected to grow by over 50% to US$170 towards the end of the period, on the back of rising incomes. The market offers growth potential in key digital products groups such as computers (10% penetration), notebook computers, digital cameras and LCD TV sets.
Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$1.13bn in 2011, to US$1.79bn by 2015, a rise of more than 58%.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,281bn based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,188bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 79% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to remain fairly stable through to 2015. Turkey's predicted market share of 18.2% in 2011 is expected to fall to 16.9% by 2015.
Business Monitor International's Turkey Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's retail industry.
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