|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 81
Zimbabwe's pharmaceutical market will remain unattractive in the medium term due to its low value and unpredictable operating environment. There is little in the way of direct multinational activity in Zimbabwe with foreign firms confined to technology transfer and foreign direct investment (FDI). Even domestic firms are struggling in the operating environment with staff and raw material shortages. Consequently Zimbabwe will be reliant on imported pharmaceuticals for the foreseeable future.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: US$142mn in 2010 to US$160mn in 2011; +12.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q411.
- Healthcare US$751mn in 2010 to US$829mn in 2011; +10.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q411 due to analyst modification.
- Medical devices: US$40mn in 2010 to US$44mn in 2011; +10% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q411.
Business Environment Rating: Zimbabwe is ranked 29th out of 30 regional markets in BMI's Middle East and Africa Business Environment Ratings for Q112. Zimbabwe moves off the bottom of the table thanks in part to an improved pharmaceutical rating of 29.5 compared with 28.0 in the previous quarter, and in part due to the introduction of Cote d'Ivoire into the rankings for the first time.
Key Trends & Developments
- Zimbabwe's fight against HIV and tuberculosis (TB) will be affected by a significant reduction in the Global Fund for the Round 11 disbursements and postponement of initiating dates. In October 2011, Rangarirai Chiteure, a coordinator for the country coordinating mechanism for the Global Fund, said Zimbabwe is required to lower its Round 11 application budget to US$40mn for HIV and US$20mn for TB programmes. Chiteure said the cuts will hamper all countries receiving funding from the Global Fund. Zimbabwe was granted US$296mn fund for HIV and US$58mn for TB in Round 8, the funding from which runs until 2014.
- In October 2011, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) announced that an oral Viread (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate) arm had been withdrawn from a pre-exposure prophylaxis trial in women at risk of HIV. The Vaginal and Oral Interventions to Control the Epidemic (VOICE) study involves 5,029 women at 15 trial sites in Uganda, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The trial will continue to assess the effectiveness of Truvada (tenofovir plus emtricitabine) and a vaginal microbicide containing tenofovir.
BMI Economic View: The real GDP growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 remain at 7.1% and 7.4% respectively after a visit to Zimbabwe in September confirmed the broad view of the economy. Broadly, it is still in recovery mode but a lack of access to capital for firms is keeping the rate of expansion lower than it might be otherwise. BMI's forecast for 2011 is lower than the government's expectation of expansion of 9.3%.
BMI Political View: Although members of ZANU-PF appear to be losing patience with President Robert Mugabe's continued leadership of the party, BMI sees it as extremely unlikely that internal dissent will lead to Mugabe's ousting. That said, there can be no doubt that a succession battle is raging beneath the surface and the longer Mugabe clings on to power, the more detrimental his eventual departure will be for the party and for the country.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
