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Czech Republic Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 40
BMI has revised down the real GDP growth forecast for 2012 to 0.8%, from 2.3% previously. The ongoing deterioration in the external environment, which has recently seen BMI forecast the eurozone economy to contract by 0.2% in 2012, will have a heavy impact on the Czech export-led economy. In terms of freight modes, road haulage growth will lead the way in 2012. The freight transport sector as a whole is expected to have something of a muted year, with eurozone uncertainties affecting the operating environment.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is forecast to grow 2.2%, following growth of 1.6% in 2011.
- Rail freight volume is forecast to grow 2.1% to 89.68mn tonnes in 2012, following growth of 6.0% in 2011.
- 2012 road freight tonnage is forecast to grow 5.1% to 396.53mn tonnes, following a 6.0% expansion in 2011.
- Total trade growth in real terms for 2012 is forecast at 9.1%
Key Industry Trends
Government Caution on Privatisation
A statement from the finance ministry in late September 2011 showed the centre-right Czech coalition government is cautious on the privatisation front. Within the transport sector it is clear that Cesky Aeroholding, the proposed merger of national airline CSA and Prague Airport operator Letiste Praha, is considered of 'strategic importance' and therefore will remain under majority state control. Rail operator Cesky drahy (CD) is not currently on the official privatisation list, while the sale of some of the assets of SZDC, a railtrack management company, is progressing.
RSD to Become Joint-Stock Company
Transport minister Pavel Dobes said in October that he wanted to transform RSD, the Czech Road and Motorway Directorate, into a joint-stock company by the end of 2013. Dobes hopes to change its current status as a 'semi-budgetary organisation' so that it would be able to borrow around CZK20-30bn (US$1.11-1.67bn) from banks and other sources to invest in transport infrastructure.
CD Cargo Looks To Expand In Slovakia, Poland
CD Cargo, the state-owned rail freight operator, is planning acquisitions in Slovakia and Poland as part of a Central European expansion policy. Chief executive Gustav Slamecka was quoted by the Ekonom being considered for a 66% stake in Slovakian company ZSSK Cargo, and for 51% of Polish company PKP Cargo.
Key Risks to Outlook
The risks to the moderate growth outlook for the Czech Republic remain firmly skewed to the downside, with corresponding knock-on effects for the local freight transport industry. This is largely because of the ongoing eurozone debt crisis and increasingly negative US growth outlook. While the Czech Republic has benefited greatly from its links with Germany, this also leaves the country heavily exposed to a slowdown in the German economy. A general slowdown would feed through very rapidly to freight demand, which would also be expected to plunge. Though not BMI's core scenario, this eventuality would likely lead to a heavy downward revision to our freight projections for the Czech Republic.
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