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Bahrain Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 86
Business Monitor International's Bahrain Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q112 update to the Bahraini Telecommunications report incorporates full-year 2010 market data published by the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) of Bahrain for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband sectors. It also incorporates the latest financial and operational data published by the country's two biggest mobile operators – Batelco and Zain Bahrain. Meanwhile, BMI has extended our five-year growth forecast for mobile subscriptions, mobile ARPU, fixed-line subscriptions, and internet usage and broadband subscriptions to 2016.
Based on market data published by Batelco and Zain, BMI estimates there were 1.533mn mobile subscribers in Bahrain at the end of June 2011. This represented a 0.1% growth over the previous quarter but still below the 1.567mn mobile subscribers recorded at the end of 2010. BMI also calculates that mobile penetration rate reached 115.8%, slightly up from 115.7% at the end of Q110, but down from 124.2% at the end of 2010. The positive growth in Q211, albeit marginal, reversed a trend of net losses recorded for three consecutive quarters starting from Q310. BMI notes that growth in Q211 was driven by market leader Batelco and third-ranked VIVA Bahrain, while Zain continued to record subscriber net losses. It attributes subscriber losses in H210 and Q111 to a combination of disconnection of unregistered lines, fewer growth opportunities brought on by market saturation and displacement of residents and foreign workers at the peak of the country’s political crisis in the first few months of 2011. However, BMI maintains its view that positive growth will return during H211, mainly due to increased public spending and the gradual uptick in economic activities. Its extended forecast show an average growth rate of 1.2% over the next five years, bringing mobile penetration to about 118.8% by 2016.
Bahrain's mobile market remains predominantly prepaid. However, the disconnection of unregistered prepaid lines at the end of 2010 has improved the subscriber mix of mobile operators in the countries. Although new prepaid offers and promotions introduced by some operators are expected to boost prepaid subscriptions again, BMI believes there is greater emphasis on attracting postpaid subscribers by operators for long-term revenue growth. BMI notes that the growing demand for high-end smartphones provides an opportunity for operators to attract customers onto postpaid deals with voice and data allowances.
According to the TRA, the number of active fixed-line subscribers decreased by 4% y-o-y during 2010 to 228,000, representing a market penetration of 18.1%, according to BMI estimates. Fixed-line incumbent Batelco reported a subscriber base of 185,000, giving it a market share of 81.1%. The decline in fixed-line subscriptions during 2010 indicates acceleration in fixed-to-mobile substitution, especially as wireless broadband networks become the dominant form of internet access. BMI expects the downtrend in fixed-line subscriptions to continue during its forecast period, bringing fixed-line penetration rate to 14% by 2016. By contrast, BMI's forecast shows an average annual growth rate of 12% during the next five years in the broadband sector, bringing broadband penetration across Bahrain to around 25.4% by 2016.
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