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Bulgaria Shipping Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 130
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's shipping industry.
BMI View: Over the mid term to 2016, average year-on-year (y-o-y) total tonnage growth is expected to be a steady if unimpressive 3.57%, reaching a total of 11mn tonnes by the end of BMI's forecast period. In 2012, tonnage throughput is forecast to increase 4.0%, slightly below the projected growth in container throughput of 5.7%.
Average growth in box volumes at the port of Varna is set to remain steady over the medium term but is unlikely to reach pre-downturn levels. Container throughput is forecast to reach 174,358 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2016, equating to a y-o-y average of 4.93%.
BMI forecasts that Bulgaria's fiscal deficit will narrow to 1.9% of GDP in 2012, from its forecast of 2.3% of GDP in 2011. BMI expects revenue streams to continue recovering albeit at a slower pace in light of its lower real growth outlook for the economy. BMI continues to see the government adhering to fiscally conservative policies in order to maintain the budget deficit below the EU-defined limit of 3.0% of GDP. However, given high unpopularity of the government and the potential for a more serious slowdown in economic growth as macroeconomic headwinds mount, there remains the potential for government expenditures to come in higher than BMI forecasts in 2012.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 4.0% to reach 9.71mn tonnes.
- 2012 port of Varna container throughput forecast to increase 5.7% to reach 144,891TEUs.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast to rise 4.32% to reach US$69.60bn.
Key Industry Trends
Vessels Stuck At Danube Due To Low Water Level
More than 100 vessels were stuck in the Bulgarian section of the Danube River between the ports of Somovit and Silistra in September 2011 as a result of a low-water level. According to Novinite, citing the Bulgarian Executive Agency for Exploration and Maintenance of the Danube River, the river's water level had reduced to 31cm near the Bulgarian city of Ruse.
Bulgaria's Danube Drive Picks Up Steam
The Bulgarian government announced plans in October 2011 to launch a Danube River Information System to cover its section of the river. The development of the Danube as a major freight transport network received considerable impetus in 2011 with the EU's endorsement of the Danube Strategy. BMI expects inland waterways to play an even greater role in Europe and Bulgaria's freight transport sector in the mid term.
Risks To Outlook
The upward revision to BMI's forecasts for Q112 comes despite the fact that Bulgaria's cabinet is seeking to annul a BGN640 loan, which the country had obtained from the Japan Fund for Reconstruction and Development in 2008 to develop two new container terminals at the ports of Varna and Bourgas. The repercussions of the global economic decline resulted in the development plans being shelved, as the country has prior experience of accepting a loan only to have cargo volumes dry up.
2012 looks set to be a challenging year for Bulgaria in terms of the country's political outlook. In the context of the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, slowing global growth and the domestic economy's exposure to the crisis, and as GERB enters its third year in parliament as head of the centre-right coalition government, BMI sees a number of issues that may prove difficult to tackle in the coming year.
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