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Romania Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 106
BMI’s Q112 update of the Romania Telecommunications Report contains analysis of the market data from the major fixed telephony, broadband and mobile service providers for the period to the end of September 2011. It also contains data published by Romania’s telecoms sector regulator ANCOM. This quarter we have extended our forecasts for the country’s mobile, fixed telephony and broadband subscriber markets sectors through to 2016. The report also contains revised forecasts for mobile ARPUs. Romania’s mobile sector lost a further 239,000 subscribers in Q311, with Vodafone and Cosmote reporting negative subscriber growth. By contrast, Orange Romania reported positive customer growth in Q311. We also estimate that DigiMobil continued to secure positive net additions based on the popularity of multi-play packages offered by parent company RCS&RDS. The Q311 customer losses added to those recorded in Q111 and Q211. In the 12 months to December 31, we estimate that
Romania’s mobile sector contracted by 6.7% to reach 27.766mn. Our new forecast expects the market to shrink by a further 2.5% in 2012. However, we maintain our view that positive growth will be achieved in the latter years of our forecast, following the recent ‘clean-up’ of the sector. BMI forecasts almost 27.4mn mobile subscribers in 2016, equivalent to a penetration rate of just over 129%.
In 2011 we estimate that Romania’s market weighted monthly blended ARPU to increase by 3.0% to reach RON26.7 (US$6). The major factor driving up monthly blended ARPUs is the discounting of inactive subscribers. We believe ARPUs will continue to increase in 2012 before embarking on a gradual decline. Factors that will have a positive impact on monthly blended ARPU include improving macroeconomic conditions, as well as the ongoing migration of consumers from prepaid to postpaid subscriptions. They also include the growing use of mobile data services.
Our new fixed-line forecast for Romania envisages a steady decline, as mobile services erode the market and as VoIP-based offerings draw customers away from traditional fixed lines. By the end of 2016 we expect the penetration rate to have reached 18.8%. Meanwhile, our new broadband forecast envisages a subscriber base of just over 7mn at the end of 2016, a penetration rate of almost 32%.
Recent developments of note within Romania’s telecoms sector include the October 2011 announcement that the regulator was planning a tender for four Long Term Evolution (LTE) licences inH212. The new concessions will allow access to the 800MHz, 900MHz and 2600MHz spectrum bands.
Romania has risen from 14th to 13th position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for the Emerging Europe region. With the exception of Country Risks, Romania continues to score below the regional average in all of the categories assessed by BMI.
Business Monitor International's Romania Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's telecommunications industry.
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