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Egypt Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 81
Business Monitor International's Egypt Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's defence and security industry.
Egypt is heading into what can arguably be considered the most critical stage of its post-Mubarak democratic transition, as parliamentary elections are set to get underway in late November. Nevertheless, political and economic stability in Egypt was dealt another blow in early October following the outbreak of the worst violent unrest in Cairo since February’s revolution.
Judging by how the process has gone so far, there is little to suggest that the coming weeks and months will be anything but volatile. The deaths of 27 Coptic Christians in clashes between demonstrators and state security forces in Cairo in early October, the sharp clampdown on private media outlets, ongoing strike activity and public demonstrations, in addition to the rapidly diminishing support for the caretaker military government, are all symptomatic of the marked deterioration in the country’s political risk profile of late.
Despite having initially been cast as the heroes of February’s revolution, it is apparent that the armed forces are quickly losing their popular legitimacy among some segments of the population. The institution has been widely criticised for its response to the demonstration by Coptic Christians, with many comparing its tactics to those used during the Mubarak era. As the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) will maintain executive authority until after the parliamentary and presidential elections, which is a process that is now going to run into 2013, a loss in popular support will only undermine the smoothness of the country’s democratic transition further in BMIs view.
The likelihood that the parliamentary vote will suddenly usher in an era of renewed stability is low. The transition away from authoritarian rule is rarely smooth and swift, and that the process can take several years. In this context, it is important to keep in mind that Egypt is only at the beginning of its post- Mubarak era, and that such growing pains are largely to be expected. Whilst necessary, elections such as these often raise significant risks and uncertainty for investors, rather than acting as anchors of stability.
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