|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Hungary Autos Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 46
Business Monitor International's Hungary Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's automotive industry.
Hungary's automotive sector continued to gain ground over the first nine months of 2011, reversing the significant decline witnessed over 2010. According to a November 2011 report in the Budapest Business Journal, new vehicle registrations were up by 7.8% year on year (y-o-y) at 50,894 vehicles. Of this total, 37,180 were passenger cars, up by 3% y-o-y. Given this consistent performance by the Hungarian new car market over the bulk of 2011, BMI is happy to maintain its forecast of 55,988 CBUs for the whole year, representing a 6% annual increase.
While BMI expects to see strong growth in both automotive sales and production figures for Hungary in 2011, this will largely be as a result of the low base set in 2009 and 2010. Moreover, new car sales figures in particular are unlikely to match those reported before the country's 2006 balance of payments crisis and later global recession until 2015 or beyond. In terms of production, BMI expect to report a 10.19% increase over 2011 to 252,375 units. Passenger cars will continue to account for the majority of vehicle production and sales.
Used cars increasingly popular One feature of post-crisis Hungary is the increased purchase of used cars in place of new cars, as Hungarians continue to make household budget savings. According to information from Weltauto (cited in the Budapest Business Journal in September 2011), Hungarians traded 210,344 used cars during H111, up by 3.7% on the previous year. Over the same period, used car imports were up by 39.7%, at 11,588.
Opel is the most popular used car brand in Hungary at the present time, reportedly accounting for 14.6% of used cars sold over H111. Suzuki Motor was in second place on 11.7%, with German giant Volkswagen (VW) in third place on 9.1%.
BMI expects this trend of ‘used car substitution' to continue over their newly extended forecast period to 2016. For one, BMI anticipate a rush of buyers ahead of a planned rise in registration tax from January 2012. At the same time, new tougher Euro 5 European emission standards are being brought in for cars produced after 2009-10, which will likely add to the cost of buying a new vehicle.
Increased purchases of used cars pose a clear threat to the recovery of the Hungarian new car sales market, the level of which remains far below the 219,461 sales reported in 2005, before the country's 2006 balance of payments crisis. Indeed, BMI do not currently anticipate a recovery to these pre-crisis sales levels at any point over their forecast period to 2016.
The Hungarian government may attempt to boost the country's automotive industry by banning the registration of new vehicles in foreign countries. However, BMI is doubtful that such a policy would speed up the pace of the sector's recovery, although it would increase the government's tax revenue, as registering a new vehicle across the Hungarian border avoids the country's high taxes.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
