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Hungary Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 37
Business Monitor International's Hungary Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's freight transportation industry.
Following a year which saw recovery begin in the road haulage sector and continue across all other freight modes, BMI believes 2012 will signal further growth and, in one freight mode, a return to predownturn levels.
Total trade is projected to pick up, with their Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 7.81% in 2012 following an estimated growth of 7.72% in 2011.
Road freight is expected to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 7% in 2012. Inland waterway freight, the third largest mode and quickest to recover its pre-downturn levels, will continue its upward trajectory.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.5%;
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 5.5%;
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 7.3%;
- 2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 3.3%;
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 7.8%.
Key Industry Trends
Danube Strategy Picks Up Steam Under Hungary's EU Presidency The development of the Danube as a major freight transport network has been given considerable impetus in 2011 with the EU's endorsement of the EC's 'Danube Strategy'. BMI expects inland waterways to play an even greater role in Europe's freight transport sector in the mid term. If upgrades to the waterway go ahead, BMI believes there is potential for a shift in the use of freight modes in Hungary in the long term.
Risks To Outlook
BMI identifies the freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as those with risk to the downside, as it is these modes of transport which would benefit from the increase of container volumes on the back of a strengthening consumer base. However, according to their Country Risk team, there is a weak private consumption outlook for the Hungarian economy. BMI holds the view that Hungary's economy will display marked weakness over the coming quarters. BMI have lowered their real GDP growth forecast for 2011 to 2.0% from 2.9% previously on account of a deteriorating global macroeconomic backdrop.
Should global risk aversion continue to increase, leading to further capital outflows, this could prompt the Hungarian central bank to aggressively tighten monetary policy, as it did in 2008. Under this scenario, given the already weak state of the domestic economy, Hungary could be pushed back into recession over the coming quarters. BMI also note downside risks to their freight forecasts should conditions in the EU deteriorate significantly, potentially via a worsening of the sovereign debt crisis. This would have a pronounced effect on Hungary's economic recovery, given its heavy reliance on export-oriented industries.
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