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Iran Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 104
Business Monitor International's Iran Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's defence and security industry.
Iran has a domestic defence industry that provides the country with particularly good ballistic missile technology and facilities. In mid-2011, reports indicated that the country had developed underground silos to protect its missile bases from attack. However, despite not being subject to UN arms embargo, it faces a mass of import and export controls. Trade does exist but is so stifled that it cannot have much effect on the industry or country’s security.
The foremost issue with Iran’s security has to be the secrecy surrounding its activities, particularly those involving uranium enrichment. The development of nuclear power is understandable in a country that needs to export as much of its oil as possible. The country recently claimed to be installing new high-tech uranium enrichment centrifuges that will treble capacity and speed up the development of its nuclear programme. The centrifuges are most likely to be in the pilot fuel fabrication plant in the country’s uranium enrichment facility in Natanz although it may move to an underground bunker in Qom. However, by keeping the development of capacity large enough to produce weapons, away from global eyes, Iran risks pre-emptive attacks on its nuclear facilities from worried neighbours and, in all possibility, the US.
With the recent publication of the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) report on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the country’s nuclear programme has once again arrived at the fore of global security discussions. Cyber attacks alleged to have originated in Israel upon the country’s nuclear facilities alongside growing animosity between the two countries highlights the fragility of the peace between the two countries as the immediate primary risk to the security situation.
BMI highlights that the possibility of an Israeli air strike on Iran should not be underestimated. Rumours concerning potential Israeli military action have swept through the media over the past fortnight, and while BMI still believes that the costs of an air war would outweigh the benefits, the Jewish state's decisionmakers may decide otherwise. BMI reiterates that a military confrontation between Israel and Iran would represent a new global crisis, threatening to spiral into a regional war, which would in turn drive up oil prices. And it is not just relations with Israel that are souring, but also those with the US in light not only of Iran’s nuclear program, but also the US's accusations that Iran plotted to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US on American soil.
Domestically, Iran's March 2012 parliamentary elections are unlikely to cause popular unrest in the same way as the 2009 presidential elections. This view is underpinned by the fact that reformist candidates are likely to be excluded from the ballot, as well as the fact that the opposition Green Movement appears to have moved beyond the hope of reforming the Islamic Republic from within. That said, BMI still believes political risks are elevated due to political in-fighting among conservatives, and a lack of popular representation in the government overall. BMI believes Iran is nearing a political, social, and economic collapse, which is reflected in our low short-term political risk rating of 42.7 out of 100.
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