Iran Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, December 2011, Pages: 104
Business Monitor International's Iran Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's defence and security industry.
Iran has a domestic defence industry that provides the country with particularly good ballistic missile technology and facilities. In mid-2011, reports indicated that the country had developed underground silos to protect its missile bases from attack. However, despite not being subject to UN arms embargo, it faces a mass of import and export controls. Trade does exist but is so stifled that it cannot have much effect on the industry or country’s security.
The foremost issue with Iran’s security has to be the secrecy surrounding its activities, particularly those involving uranium enrichment. The development of nuclear power is understandable in a country that needs to export as much of its oil as possible. The country recently claimed to be installing new high-tech uranium enrichment centrifuges that will treble capacity and speed up the development of its nuclear programme. The centrifuges are most likely to be in the pilot fuel fabrication plant in the country’s uranium enrichment facility in Natanz although it may move to an underground bunker in Qom. However, by keeping the development of capacity large enough to produce weapons, away from global eyes, Iran risks pre-emptive attacks on its nuclear facilities from worried neighbours and, in all possibility, the US.
With the recent publication of the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) report on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the country’s nuclear programme has once again arrived at the fore of global security discussions. Cyber attacks alleged to have originated in Israel upon the country’s nuclear facilities alongside growing animosity between the two countries highlights the fragility of the peace between the two countries as the immediate primary risk to the security situation.
BMI highlights that the possibility of an Israeli air strike on Iran should not be underestimated. Rumours concerning potential Israeli military action have swept through the media over the past fortnight, and while BMI still believes that the costs of an air war would outweigh the benefits, the Jewish state's decisionmakers may decide otherwise. BMI reiterates that a military confrontation between Israel and Iran would represent a new global crisis, threatening to spiral into a regional war, which would in turn drive up oil prices. And it is not just relations with Israel that are souring, but also those with the US in light not only of Iran’s nuclear program, but also the US's accusations that Iran plotted to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US on American soil.
Domestically, Iran's March 2012 parliamentary elections are unlikely to cause popular unrest in the same way as the 2009 presidential elections. This view is underpinned by the fact that reformist candidates are likely to be excluded from the ballot, as well as the fact that the opposition Green Movement appears to have moved beyond the hope of reforming the Islamic Republic from within. That said, BMI still believes political risks are elevated due to political in-fighting among conservatives, and a lack of popular representation in the government overall. BMI believes Iran is nearing a political, social, and economic collapse, which is reflected in our low short-term political risk rating of 42.7 out of 100.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Iran Security SWOT
Iran Defence Industry SWOT
Iran Political SWOT
Iran Economic SWOT
Iran Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Eurozone At Centre-Stage, MENA Still A Major Risk
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States: Stalemate To Persist Heading Into Election Season
Latin America: Much More Uncertainty To Come
Western Europe: Incumbent Leaders Under Pressure
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: The ‘Return’ Of Putin
Middle East And North Africa: Can Democracy Take Root?
Sub-Saharan Africa: Testing Times
Asia: All Eyes On China’s Moves
Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
External Powers
Scenarios For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Regime In-Fighting To Intensify Ahead of 2012 Elections
In-Fighting Undermining Stability
2012 Elections Won't Go The Way Of 2009
Risks Are Still Prevalent
Table: Iran Political Overview
Foreign Affairs
Assassination Plot Signals Major Escalation Of US-Iran-Saudi Tensions
Turkey’s Assertiveness Likely To Increase Regional Tensions
Long-Term Political Outlook
The Next 10 Years: Four Scenarios For Political Evolution
Internal Challenges And Threats To Stability
External Pressures
Domestic Security Overview
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Current Strength
Equipment
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Table: Background Brief – Iran’s Nuclear Programme, 2002-2008
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Key Players In Iran’s Defence Sector
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Iran Defence Personnel – Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49)
Government Expenditure
Table: Iran’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2009 - 2016
Table: Iran’s Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of Government Expenditure, 2009 - 2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Iran – Economic Activity
Company Profiles
International Companies
China Great Wall Industry Corporation
Sukhoi
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
Domestic Companies
Aerospace Industries Organization
Ammunition and Metallurgy Industries Group
Defence Industries Organization
Iran Electronics Industries
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
- China Great Wall Industry Corporation
- Sukhoi
- Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
- Aerospace Industries Organization
- Ammunition and Metallurgy Industries Group
- Defence Industries Organization
- Iran Electronics Industries
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