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Iran Shipping Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 134
Business Monitor International's Iran Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's shipping industry.
Double-digit throughput growth at the primary Iranian port of Bandar Abbas appears to have come to an end, as US sanctions against the pariah state's shipping sector continue to strengthen. The country's national shipping lines have also been facing increasing pressure in their operations. Nevertheless, we project continued growth in Iranian container shipping in the face of Western sanctions, as domestic consumer demand continues to grow.
Headline Industry Data:
- 2012 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput growth forecast 2.7%, and to average 3.3% per annum to 2016.
- 2016 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 3.19mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2012 total trade real growth forecast at 2.0%, and to average 2.4% to 2016.
Key Industry Trends:
Sanctions Continue
The Iranian shipping sector continues to be targeted by Western sanctions in a bid to halt Iran's alleged nuclear weapons development programme. The number of separate shipping bodies and entities related to Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) now blacklisted by the US Treasury Department has risen to 150 after six more companies, registered in Panama, were added to the list during Q411.
Government Purchases Chinese FPSO Vessel
The Iranian government has reportedly entered into a deal to buy a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel from China. The signing of the US$260mn deal led to the cancellation of negotiations between Iran and a Norwegian oil company to buy or hire a similar vessel. The vessel is scheduled to be delivered in 2013 and will facilitate the development of the South Pars gas field. It is believed that on-time delivery of the FPSO vessel will allow the beginning of oil production at the South Pars gas field in the next two years.
Rescued By The Navy
Iran has a sizeable presence among the warships that patrol the pirate-infested waters around the Somali coastline and in the Gulf of Aden. The necessity of this was demonstrated during Q411 when a tanker belonging to NITC came under attack in an attempted hijacking. According to NITC managing director Mohammad Souri, the Iranian navy rescued a tanker when it was attacked in the Gulf Aden and Bab alIran Mandab strait. A second tanker, the Damavand, was also attacked but managed to escape without assistance.
Key Risks To Outlook:
The sanctions imposed on Iran provide considerable risk to our forecasts. With the nuclear energy development programme - which the Iranians insist is not for the development of weapons - elevated to the status of a national cause, it seems unlikely that it will be dropped anytime soon. It has long been known that Tehran's intention is to become a political and military powerhouse in the Gulf, a situation that has proved unnerving to its regional neighbours. That several Middle Eastern states have been actively calling for military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, despite the massive risks to regional stability that this would pose, clearly highlights their concern surrounding the possibility of a nucleararmed Tehran in the region.
The addition of Tidewater, and the company's ports, to the boycotted list will have massive ramifications for the port of Bandar Abbas, and will halt the double-digit growth the facility has enjoyed in recent months.
Equally, as Iran is so reliant on the export of oil to feed its economy, any fluctuation in the price of fossil fuels could provide risk to our projections.
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