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Iraq Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 89
Business Monitor International's Iraq Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iraq's defence and security industry.
Much of the attention on Iraq in H211 and going into 2012, will focus on the agreed withdrawal of the remaining 46,000 US military forces in the country and the subsequent power vacuum. The withdrawal of US forces will heighten security risks, both domestic and foreign. Domestically, the American presence has kept sectarian violence in the northern regions of the country relatively contained, and Kurds have expressed fears that the end of a US troop presence would lead to an uptick in Arab-Kurd violence.
Nearly a year after its creation, we note that the risks of political instability and a government collapse are now higher than ever. The foundations of the Arbil Agreement, which led to the creation of a government in December 2010, rested on a number of promises that would be offered to the junior coalition partners (the Kurdish and Iraqiya blocs) in return for their support of a unity government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. However, ten months on, many of those promises have not been met, and the growing impatience of the junior partners could destabilise the government.
Iraq has almost no indigenous defence industry and relies greatly on the support of the US, UK and other allies to provide and fund arms and equipment. With their support, Iraq has ordered tanks, aircraft and helicopters in order to stand any chance of meeting the challenges it will face when the remaining US troops withdraw at the end of 2011. Purchases include M1 Abrams battle tanks from General Dynamics in the US; armoured personnel carriers from BAE Land Systems and from Kariv Morarzov in Ukraine and various transport and multi-role helicopters from Aeronautical Radio Incorporated in Russia and Eurocopter in France.
The redevelopment of the military forces is under way and looks set on a reasonable path to achieve a capable force, although it may take 10 years from now to be at full strength.
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