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Israel Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Description:
Business Monitor International's Israel Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Israel's defence and security industry.
While the Arab Spring has raised hopes for a new more democratic and more peaceful Middle East for many in Israel, the overthrow of the country’s erstwhile ally in Egypt and disruption of the region’s balance of power has led to unease over the future of the country’s security situation. In spite of these concerns and a number of high-profile incidents, the number of active conflict points has actually dropped since 2008. Nevertheless, Israel continues to exist in a fragile and dangerous environment with few regional allies and as a result the country’s defence industry will continue to be relied upon in order to maintain everyday life in the country. Because of this experience, Israel is at the forefront of much of the world’s counter-terrorism and surveillance equipment.
Israel is a major importer of surface ships and warplanes. Indigenous production focuses on component manufacture and the country provides other countries with an array of technologically-advanced weapons and detection systems. Close political and economic ties with the US, by far the world’s largest spender in the defence sector, has opened the door to a number of strategic partnerships between US and Israeli companies providing wide access to the US market.
Israeli companies have announced a number of major contract wins in 2011. In May 2011, General Dynamics agreed to buy components for US Army M1A2 Abrams tanks and Stryker armoured personnel carriers from Israeli companies as part of a US$150mn reciprocal procurement agreement with Israel. In exchange, General Dynamics will build the Israeli-designed Leopard armoured personnel carrier for the Israeli Defence Force. In August 2011, it was reported that Rafael Advanced Defence Systems and USbased Raytheon would jointly market Rafael’s Iron Dome rocket interception system in the US. The system is used in by the IDF to intercept rockets fired from the Gaza Strip.
Economic growth in the state had expanded at a healthy rate on the back of higher consumer confidence and a more supportive external environment and this has is seen spending on defence growing too. However, it had dropped to below 6% of GDP and now, by mid-2011, it shows signs of deceleration. BMI maintains its 2011 and 2012 real GDP growth forecasts of 4.8% and 4.5%.
The biggest risk to BMI's GDP forecast is how investors react to the Arab Spring. Investors may take a step back until the future of Israel’s relations with its neighbours, particularly Egypt, Syria and Lebanon, gain further clarity. Investors will particularly be watching the evolving relationship with Egypt, as Egypt’s role in containing Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been essential to Israeli security.
If a newly elected Egyptian government takes a pro-Palestinian position the effect on Israeli security will be pronounced. An uncertain security situation is nothing new for Israeli investors; nevertheless, the country is entering a new era along with the rest of the region and investors’ risk appetite may well be tempered by rising uncertainty.
Politically, BMI's view is that the Israeli coalition government that came to power at the start of 2011 has become more conservative in its domestic policy position and more hawkish in its foreign policy stance. The Arab spring and a series of domestic protests in recent months have raised uncertainties over the security situation in these countries. The Netanyahu government has responded to these events with hardline rhetoric, but also signs of increased engagement.
Israel has vociferously opposed Mahmoud Abbas’ attempt to gain statehood for Palestine at the UN, but at the same time orchestrated one of the most significant prisoner exchange programmes in the history of Israel-Palestine relations that saw the release of Israeli sergeant Gilad Shalit in exchange for the scheduled release of 1,027 imprisoned Palestinians.
While the Arab Spring has raised hopes for a new more democratic and more peaceful Middle East for many in Israel, the overthrow of the country’s erstwhile ally in Egypt and disruption of the region’s balance of power has led to unease over the future of the country’s security situation. In spite of these concerns and a number of high-profile incidents, the number of active conflict points has actually dropped since 2008. Nevertheless, Israel continues to exist in a fragile and dangerous environment with few regional allies and as a result the country’s defence industry will continue to be relied upon in order to maintain everyday life in the country. Because of this experience, Israel is at the forefront of much of the world’s counter-terrorism and surveillance equipment.
Israel is a major importer of surface ships and warplanes. Indigenous production focuses on component manufacture and the country provides other countries with an array of technologically-advanced weapons and detection systems. Close political and economic ties with the US, by far the world’s largest spender in the defence sector, has opened the door to a number of strategic partnerships between US and Israeli companies providing wide access to the US market.
Israeli companies have announced a number of major contract wins in 2011. In May 2011, General Dynamics agreed to buy components for US Army M1A2 Abrams tanks and Stryker armoured personnel carriers from Israeli companies as part of a US$150mn reciprocal procurement agreement with Israel. In exchange, General Dynamics will build the Israeli-designed Leopard armoured personnel carrier for the Israeli Defence Force. In August 2011, it was reported that Rafael Advanced Defence Systems and USbased Raytheon would jointly market Rafael’s Iron Dome rocket interception system in the US. The system is used in by the IDF to intercept rockets fired from the Gaza Strip.
Economic growth in the state had expanded at a healthy rate on the back of higher consumer confidence and a more supportive external environment and this has is seen spending on defence growing too. However, it had dropped to below 6% of GDP and now, by mid-2011, it shows signs of deceleration. BMI maintains its 2011 and 2012 real GDP growth forecasts of 4.8% and 4.5%.
The biggest risk to BMI's GDP forecast is how investors react to the Arab Spring. Investors may take a step back until the future of Israel’s relations with its neighbours, particularly Egypt, Syria and Lebanon, gain further clarity. Investors will particularly be watching the evolving relationship with Egypt, as Egypt’s role in containing Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been essential to Israeli security.
If a newly elected Egyptian government takes a pro-Palestinian position the effect on Israeli security will be pronounced. An uncertain security situation is nothing new for Israeli investors; nevertheless, the country is entering a new era along with the rest of the region and investors’ risk appetite may well be tempered by rising uncertainty.
Politically, BMI's view is that the Israeli coalition government that came to power at the start of 2011 has become more conservative in its domestic policy position and more hawkish in its foreign policy stance. The Arab spring and a series of domestic protests in recent months have raised uncertainties over the security situation in these countries. The Netanyahu government has responded to these events with hardline rhetoric, but also signs of increased engagement.
Israel has vociferously opposed Mahmoud Abbas’ attempt to gain statehood for Palestine at the UN, but at the same time orchestrated one of the most significant prisoner exchange programmes in the history of Israel-Palestine relations that saw the release of Israeli sergeant Gilad Shalit in exchange for the scheduled release of 1,027 imprisoned Palestinians.
Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Israel Security SWOT
Israel Defence Industry SWOT
Israel Political SWOT
Israel Economics SWOT
Israel Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Eurozone At Centre-Stage, MENA Still A Major Risk
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
External Powers
Scenarios For The Middle East
What If Assad’s Regime Falls? Scenarios Assessed
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Israel's Security Risk Ratings
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Challenges And Threats To Stability
Internal Threats
Scenarios For Political Change
Table: Israel – Political Overview
Foreign Policy
Israel’s New Geopolitical Realities Increase Risks
Domestic Security Overview
Table: Insurgent Groups In Israel
External Security Situation The Golan Heights
Iran Mediterranean Natural Resources
Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Table: Israeli Vehicles Capable Of Nuclear Delivery
Market Overview
Table: Key Players In Israel’s Defence Sector
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Israel’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Israel’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Israel’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: Israel’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Arms Trade
Table: Israel’s Defence Exports – Arms And Ammunition, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Israel - Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Company Profiles
Elbit Systems
Elisra Group
General Dynamics
Israel Military Industries
Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Israel Security SWOT
Israel Defence Industry SWOT
Israel Political SWOT
Israel Economics SWOT
Israel Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Eurozone At Centre-Stage, MENA Still A Major Risk
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
External Powers
Scenarios For The Middle East
What If Assad’s Regime Falls? Scenarios Assessed
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Israel's Security Risk Ratings
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Challenges And Threats To Stability
Internal Threats
Scenarios For Political Change
Table: Israel – Political Overview
Foreign Policy
Israel’s New Geopolitical Realities Increase Risks
Domestic Security Overview
Table: Insurgent Groups In Israel
External Security Situation The Golan Heights
Iran Mediterranean Natural Resources
Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Table: Israeli Vehicles Capable Of Nuclear Delivery
Market Overview
Table: Key Players In Israel’s Defence Sector
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Israel’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Israel’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Israel’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: Israel’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Arms Trade
Table: Israel’s Defence Exports – Arms And Ammunition, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Israel - Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Company Profiles
Elbit Systems
Elisra Group
General Dynamics
Israel Military Industries
Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
Companies Mentioned
- Elbit Systems
- Elisra Group
- General Dynamics
- Israel Military Industries
- Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd
- Elisra Group
- General Dynamics
- Israel Military Industries
- Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd
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