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Indian Tyre Industry, Q4 2011
Credit Analysis & Research Limited, Dec 2011, Pages: 86
Slowing down growth levels in automobile sales will strain OEM demand to some extent; replacement demand to provide cushion for tyre industry
Domestic tyre industry has witnessed a remarkable recovery in FY10 and FY11, after a slowdown in FY09. This growth was driven by strong revival in automobile demand on the back of resurgence in economy, rise in employment levels, and easing of interest rate scenario. The concerns about slowdown in the growth levels in new automobile sales would dampen the demand from OEMs in the short term. However, strong growth in automobile sales in last 7-8 years barring the slowdown of FY09, have resulted in significant expansion of vehicle population that would transform in healthy replacement demand for tyres in medium to long term period.
The tyre industry is on a brink of a major structural change. T&B which is a dominant segment in terms of tonnage is witnessing a gradual rise in the proportion of radial tyres. Going by the global trend it seems that the radial tyre demand in India is at inflection point and with almost 98 per cent of the passenger car tyre production has been radialised, T&B tyre category is the next major category to witness spurt in the demand for radial tyres. And with improvement in road infrastructure and better cost economics the proportion of radial tyres in T&B category is expected to expand by around seven times from the current levels. Sighting this opportunity, almost all the expansion plans for T&B category tyres are for radial category tyres.
In FY11, almost all the manufacturers reported healthy rise in their top-line, driven by growth in both volumes and realisation. However, sharp rise in input cost due to increase in global demand combined with adverse climate conditions in major rubber producing countries like Indonesia and Thailand coupled with spiraling interest cost pulled down industry’s bottom line considerably in FY11. Going forward it is expected that, softening in input prices owing to cooling down global demand combined with stability in interest rates scenario will benefit tyre manufacturer’s bottom line.
CARE Research has developed detailed model for forecasting OEMs as well as replacement demand for all the tyre categories like Truck and Bus (T&B), passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, tractors and light commercial vehicles (LCV). Strong understanding of automobile as well as tyre sector is percolated down to the auto component sector and thus the demand for tyres is forecasted as well on the basis of projected automobile sales and population.
All Rights Reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form without prior written permission from CARE
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