Qatar Shipping Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, December 2011, Pages: 129
Business Monitor International's Qatar Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Qatar's shipping industry.
The Qatari shipping sector continues to be dominated by the export of the country's key commodity, natural gas, through the export terminal of Ras Laffan. Much of this is carried by national carrier Nakilat. However, the country is looking to increase its container and dry bulk shipping presence as well, through the development of the New Doha port, which seems to be being developed with an eye towards capturing some lucrative transhipment trade. We forecast moderate growth in trade and port throughput in Qatar over the mid term.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Doha container throughput forecast to grow 4.0%, and to average 3.2% per annum to 2016 (including transferred operations to New Doha from 2015).
- 2012 total trade growth forecast at 4.0%, and to average 2.3% over our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
New Doha Port Needed, But Transhipment Plan Misguided
In laying the foundation stone for its new port in October 2011, Qatar hopes it is laying the foundations for not only a premier maritime facility to serve its rapidly expanding economy, but also the possibility of having its own regional transhipment hub. BMI cautions, however, that although the domestic demand for a new facility is explicit, we do not believe that the transhipment demand in the Gulf region is sufficient to support the slew of facilities being developed with an eye to this trade.
In October Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Crown Prince of Qatar, laid the foundation stone for the New Doha Port in Qatar. The new port will take over operations from the current Doha Port from 2015 if work runs according to schedule. Qatar has been one of the world's fastest-growing economies in 2011. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, Qatar sits on 13.5% of the world's natural gas, and it is the export of this that is fuelling the small country's rapid growth. We forecast real GDP growth of 17.2% in 2011, falling to 7.8% in 2012 on the back of moderating oil and gas prices, which will affect not only exports but also government spending and the supply of credit.
Qatar Shipping Secures Contract From Qatar Petroleum
Qatar Navigation's wholly-owned subsidiary Qatar Shipping has secured a 20-year contract from Qatar Petroleum to provide and operate harbour tugs, pilot boats and mooring gangs at the Port of Mesaieed. The QAR1.9bn (US$514mn) contract is scheduled to become effective from August 2014. Qatar Shipping will build 19 boats over the next three years to service this contract. Qatar Shipping operates a huge fleet of vessels catering to various sectors including crude oil, petrochemicals and liquefied petroleum gas.
Risks To Outlook
With the Qatari economy so reliant on the export of hydrocarbons, the key risk to our forecasts is a drop in the global price of gas.
Although risks that popular unrest in the region might spill over into Qatar's political arena are minimal, investors' perception vis-à-vis the entire Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have been weakened, which could certainly impact Qatar's banking sector. In the least, ongoing apprehension surrounding the scope and duration of the political crisis could see banks become significantly more hesitant to lend over the coming quarters, which could undermine our loan growth forecast. This, in turn, could affect BMI's trade and port throughput forecasts for Qatar.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Qatar Shipping SWOT
Qatar Political SWOT
Qatar Economic SWOT
Qatar Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping
Executive Summary
Lines To Enter 2012 In The Red
Overcapacity To Plague Medium Term, Beware 2013
Table: Snapshot Of Container Lines' Orders
ETR Short And Long Term Benefits To Woo Carrier Expansion
Table: Top 20 World Ports
Port Operators To Face Tougher 2012 As Box Volumes Slow
Container Curse To Hit Box Manufacturers, But Outlook Strong
Dry Bulk
Executive Summary
Chinese Slowdown Threat Double Downside Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
Vale May Find Solace With South Korea As Chinese Troubles Continue
Lines Need To Up Capacity Reduction Strategies To Ease Oversupply
Dry Bulk Lines In Choppy Waters, Possibility Of More Bankruptcies
Liquid Bulk
Executive Summary
Dirty Tanker Indices Not Very Buoyant
Differing Strategies, Differing Fortunes
Genmar Bankruptcy Just The Beginning
Survival Strategies For Floundering Tanker Operators
Rumoured Chinese Order Has Potential To Sink Crude Oil Shipping Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Industry Forecast
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Qatar's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Qatar's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
Qatar Navigation
Qatar Gas Transport Company (Nakilat)
United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
CSAV
- Qatar Navigation
- Qatar Gas Transport Company (Nakilat)
- United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- APL
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- CSAV
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