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UAE Macro and Retail Industry Outlook and 5 Year Forecast 2011-2015
Oryx Business Intelligence, January 2012, Pages: 54
This report presents a perspective of the current situation and the future outlook of the Macro and Retail Industry in the UAE. It reviews the UAE economy, the important economic indicators with their five year forecasts, the prevailing state and the recent developments in the top industry sectors contributing to the GDP of the UAE and the SWOT analysis of the economy.
This is followed by a detailed look at the retail industry with forecasts for 2011-2015. It analyzes the growth drivers, trends in the industry including consumer demand trends, retailer trends and mall owner/operator trends, their impact on the various industry participants, the challenges faced by the retail industry and finally, the projections for the industry till 2015 and its segments. The report also includes a SWOT analysis of the retail industry for a quick glance at the overall industry, the competitive landscape of the retail industry along with the recent happenings and a profile of the key industry players.
The 54 page report assembles and presents all the pertinent data along with the analysis of the information in a convenient and insightful manner. Interspersed with 34 data tables, figures and charts, the report provides an easy to understand and a definitive primer for those interested in the retail industry in the UAE.
Some of the key findings include:
- The GDP growth in the UAE has recovered after a slowdown in 2009 and is forecast to continue on its growth path
- Inflation to remain in low single digits leading to more incomes in the hands of the population
- The non-oil sector growth will be more balanced with growth spread across many sectors
- Retail revenues in the UAE experienced a CAGR of 9.6% during 2006-2010
- The UAE retail growth story is back, but at a slower rate than the pre-2008 years
- UAE is emerging as one of the most sought after destinations for international retailers
- Emirates outside of Dubai, especially Abu Dhabi, are slowly emerging as attractive centers for development of shopping malls
For industry players, the increasing competition and the demands of the new value-seeking consumers are the challenges to be overcome. Existing store plans and expansion plans are being redrawn to reflect the new maturity of the market. Although online retail is in its infancy in the Country, it is likely to gnaw away at retailers who do not have an internet presence in the near future.
1. Executive Summary
2. Economic Outlook
I. Major GDP Contributors – Abu Dhabi and Dubai
2.2 GDP Forecast 2011 – 2015
2.5 Business Environment
2.6 Monetary Union
3. Top Industry Sectors
3.1 Oil & Gas
3.2 Construction and Real Estate
3.4 Non-oil Trade
4. SWOT Analysis – Economy
5. Retail Industry Outlook
5.1 Current Situation
5.2 Retail Market Growth Drivers
5.3 Key Trends and Developments – Demand Side Dynamics
5.4 Key Trends and Developments – Supply Side Dynamics
5.5 Key Trends and Developments – Retail Real Estate
5.6 Trend Impact
5.7 Key Challenges for Retailers
5.8 Retail Sector – The Future
6. SWOT Analysis – Retail Industry
7. Competitive Landscape
8. Company Profiles
List of Figures
Figure 1 UAE Nominal GDP (2001 – 2010)
Figure 2 Statistical Indicators
Figure 3 Abu Dhabi ‘s nominal GDP vs Oil
Figure 4 Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 GDP Growth
Figure 5 Average Rent in Dubai
Figure 6 Inflation
Figure 7 Population in the UAE (2005-2010)
Figure 8 Population in the UAE Forecast (2011-2015)
Figure 9 Doing Business in the UAE
Figure 10 GDP Contribution by Sector (2009)
Figure 11 Top World Oil Reserves
Figure 12 Top World Gas Reserves
Figure 13 Average Residential Sales Price – Dubai
Figure 14 Construction Projects in the UAE
Figure 15 Average Residential Sales Price – Abu Dhabi
Figure 16 UAE Trade Breakdown (By Value)
Figure 17 Retail Market in the UAE
Figure 18 Dubai Shopping Centres (Inauguration year)
Figure 19 Abu Dhabi Shopping Centres (Inauguration year)
Figure 20 Sharjah Shopping Centres (Inauguration year)
Figure 21 Annual Footfall in selected malls
Figure 22 Retail Supply – Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Figure 23 Fastest growing categories for Dubai Duty Free in 2010
Figure 24 Internet Penetration in the Arab States (2010)
Figure 25 Top Ten Online Purchases in MENA (2010)
Figure 26 Group Buying Sites in the UAE
Figure 27 GDP
Figure 28 GDP per capita (2011-2015)
Figure 29 Trend Impact
Figure 30 Retail Sector Outlook (2011–2015)
Figure 31 Clothing Industry 2011 vs 2010
Figure 32 Retail Sector Outlook (2011-2015)
Figure 33 Key Players
Figure 33a Key Players
Figure 34 Recent Developments
The UAE economy has recovered from the decline in the GDP in 2009 and is now on track to continue growing on the back of high crude oil prices, high production of crude and growth in the non-oil sector. It has a blueprint for the future in the form of the Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 and the Dubai Strategic Plan 2015, the progression of which are on course.
As a consequence of the economic growth of the Country, the retail sector has also recorded high growth rates. Per capita spend is one of the highest in the world and the UAE is emerging as an attractive destination for retailers looking to enter the region.
Chapterwise, the report includes:
Chapter 1 – Executive Summary
This is a brief overview of the findings of the report with the key points listed.
Chapter 2 – Economic Outlook
Chapter 2 contains an overview of the UAE economy with the trends affecting the GDP of the country. There is a special focus on the major GDP contributors – the economy of Abu Dhabi and Dubai. This is followed by an overview and outlook over 2011-2015 for the macro economic factors of inflation, population, the business environment of the country and its non-inclusion in the Monetary Union.
Chapter 3 – Top Industry Sectors
Chapter 3 includes the breakdown of top industries that contribute to the GDP of the country and a summary for each of these sectors along with the prevalent situation in these sectors. Sectors covered include the Oil and Gas Industry, the Construction and Real Estate Industry, the Manufacturing Industry and the Non-oil Trade.
Chapter 4 – SWOT Analysis – Economy
Chapter 4 comprises the SWOT Analysis of the factors affecting the economy set against UAE government and global views.
Chapter 5 – Retail Industry Outlook
Chapter 5 details the present circumstances of the retail industry, the changes leading up to the situation and forecasts the future of the retail industry through to 2015.
Topics include the current situation of the retail industry, the factors driving growth and their forecasts, key trends and developments on the demand side and supply side of the sector and the retail real estate trends. Additionally, the chapter includes the impact of these trends on the industry participants, the challenges faced by the retailers and the forecasts and the trends defining the sector through to 2015.
Chapter 6 – SWOT Analysis – Retail Industry
Chapter 6 includes the SWOT Analysis of the Retail Industry – a quick glance at all the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the industry.
Chapter 7 – Competitive Landscape
Chapter 7 contains an overview of the competitive landscape in the industry. It contains a listing of the key players in the industry with mentions of the brands owned by them alongside. Further, the chapter recapitulates the recent developments in the sector that signify the trends.
Chapter 8 – Company Profiles
Chapter 8 contains the profiles of some of the key players in the retail in the UAE and their recent activities and news.
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