Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, December 2011, Pages: 67
Business Monitor International's Hungary Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: While national energy group MOL has great plans for the Central European region, it can do little to ease Hungary’s growing dependence on imported oil and gas. Independent explorers have made some progress in locating untapped reserves, but the upstream picture remains bleak.
Main trends and developments BMI highlights for Hungary’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- Falcon Oil & Gas has discovered a large Basin-Centred Gas Accumulation (BCGA) and a potential fractured oil and gas play in the Makó Trough area in south central Hungary. An independent report effective March 31, 2008 estimates potentially recoverable contingent resources at42.6mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe), based on a minimum 90% probability.
- Explorer Ascent Resources has benefited from independent evaluations of its gas-bearing concessions straddling the Hungary-Slovenia border. In October 2010, Ascent stated that a report by consultant RPS Energy put Petisovci-Lovaszi's P1 reserves estimate at 5.7bcm, the P2 estimate at 11.7bcm and the P3 estimate at 23.6bcm. Ascent has estimated that around 50% of the tight gas in the Petisovci- Lovaszi area can be recovered.
- Over the medium-term, an increase in overall gas consumption from an estimated 12.1bcm in 2011 to around 16.8bcm in 2016 is expected – implying net gas imports will reach 15.0bcm by the end of 2016. Efforts are being made to stabilise domestic gas production, but there is little sign of any nearterm improvement.
- Hungarian oil consumption fell from its peak of 198,000b/d in 1990 to a low of 135,000b/d in 2003. It has since recovered slowly, reaching an estimated level of 149,000b/d in 2011. BMI expects a gradual ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 162,000b/d by 2016. Domestic production is not expected to rise from recent levels, with steady slippage more likely. This will lead to higher import volumes, reaching 140,000b/d by 2016.
- Crude oil import costs should rise from an estimated US$4.4bn in 2011 to US$4.8bn in 2016. The cost of gas imports is expected to be US$6.9bn by 2016, providing a combined end-period oil and gas import bill of US$11.7bn.
At time of writing, BMI assumes an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.40/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening Eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is put at 3.6%.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Hungary Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 000b/d, 2009-2016
Global Oil Production, 000b/d, 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: CEE Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: CEE LNG Gas Exports (bcm)
Hungary Energy Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Industry Data And Forecasts – Part One
Table: Industry Data And Forecasts – Part Two
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Pipelines
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Central Eastern Europe Region
Regional Risk/Rewards Ratings
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating
Regional Upstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Hungary Upstream Rating – Overview
Hungary Upstream Rating – Rewards
Hungary Upstream Rating – Risks
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating
Hungary Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Hungary Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Magyar Olaj-és Gázipari Nyrt (MOL)
Shell Hungary
OMV Hungary
Agip Hungaria
ExxonMobil – Summary
Lukoil – Summary
E.ON – Summary
Rohöl-Aufsuchungs Aktiengesellschaft (RAG) – Summary
Ascent Resources – Summary
Falcon Oil And Gas – Summary
Hungarian Horizon Energy – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption Long Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Refining Capacity Long Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, (b/d)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Magyar Olaj-és Gázipari Nyrt (MOL)
- Shell Hungary
- OMV Hungary
- Agip Hungaria
- ExxonMobil
- Lukoil
- E.ON
- Rohöl-Aufsuchungs Aktiengesellschaft (RAG)
- Ascent Resources
- Falcon Oil And Gas
- Hungarian Horizon Energy
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