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India Shipping Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 155
Business Monitor International's India Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's shipping industry.
BMI View: India's economy and trade continues to expand rapidly. BMI expects this growth to slow, but the expansion will still be considerable over its forecast period. The volumes of dry bulk and containers being processed at the country's facilities are causing congestion at the creaking state-owned ports. This is leading to a raft of new private facilities being established all over the country.
Headline Industry Data:
- 2011/12 Port of Kandla tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.2%, and to average 8.0% to 2015/16.
- 2011/12 Port of Jawaharlal Nehru container throughput forecast to grow 4.8%, and to average 7.7% per annum to the end of BMI's forecast period.
- 2012/13 trade real growth forecast at 7.0%, and to average 9.3% to 2015/16.
Key Industry Trends:
Private Krishnapatnam Port Set To Become East Coast's Largest Container Facility
The inexorable rise of India's private ports continues as the Krishnapatnam Port Company (KPC) has announced plans to establish a container terminal capable of handling 3mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). BMI notes that this would make the port, which already has a sizeable total tonnage throughput, the largest container port on India's east coast.
Double-Stacked Container Trains Provide Extra Fillip To Private Ports
BMI believes that a planned move by Indian Railways to enable the use of double-stacked trains between the private ports of Gujarat and the National Capital Region (NCR) will not only give a boost to India's rail tonnage figures, but could also hasten the speed by which the private ports eventually exceed the size of the longer-established state-run ports.
Possible Cost Escalation As Paradip Expansion Delayed
The Indian port of Paradip, located in the state of Orissa on India's eastern seaboard, has suffered a delay in its planned expansion as it waits for governmental authorisation for a forest clearance that is necessary for construction work to begin. BMI notes that the rapid growth at the port, and the possible escalation in costs as a result of the delay, will encourage the port authority to obtain the all-clear for the clearance as quickly as possible.
Key Risks To Outlook:
- The key risk to BMI's throughput forecasts for India's ports is the congestion BMI has seen at the two key facilities of JNPT and Chennai.
- There are downside growth risks from spiralling inflation. Should food prices and oil prices maintain their upward march, there is a risk that BMI could see additional monetary tightening, which would surely come at the expense of headline economic growth. This would have a negative effect on throughput at the country's ports.
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