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Newspapers and the Internet: 2011 to 2015
Generator Research Limited, Nov 2011, Pages: 266
Having been stuck on the lauchpad for years, now is the time for digital newspapers.
Revenues from online adverting on newspaper websites and digital newspaper subscriptions will grow from USD 8.2 billion this year to USD 15.7 billion in 2015, an increase of over 90 percent or a CAGR of over 17 percent.
But because of falling print revenues in developed internet markets, the worldwide newspaper business will hardly grow at all over the next five years.
Total revenues for all revenue sources for all the world's newspaper publishers will increase from USD 126.5 billion in 2011 to USD 130.1 billion in 2015, a CAGR of just 0.7 percent - well below the projected rate of increase in global GDP.
Newspapers are facing a serious competitive challenge in markets where there is mass adoption of internet-based services such as online news, social media and user-generated content.
In markets such as these, newspaper advertising revenues are plummeting: United Kingdom - down 30.8% between 2006 and 2010; Spain - down 37.5%; Denmark - down 33.2%; Norway - down 40.6%; Poland - down 29.8%; Japan - down 36%.
But in markets where modern internet services have yet to reach mass adoption, the picture is radically different.
For instance, the Indian newspaper market - the world's largest when measured by circulation - is positively booming, with advertising expenditure having increased by 70.4 percent between 2006 and 2010 and circulation also having increased by 40.8 percent. Similar growth patterns can be observed in markets like Indonesia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Mexico, Ecuador and Egypt where newspaper circulation has increased by 17.9%, 39.4%, 67.0%, 24.3%, 51.5% and 27.8% respectively over the same period.
While the revenues of newspaper publishers in developed internet markets go up in flames, explosive growth in smartphones, tablets and eReaders - a comparatively recent development - represents petrol being poured on those flames.
By 2015 the installed base of smartphones, tablets and eReaders will reach 2.8 billion, and each of these devices will able to display newspaper content with high quality while most will be wireless enabled. By comparison, the total daily readership of all the world's newspapers in 2015 will be around 1.8 billion.
While it will have taken the newspaper industry over 100 years to create the infrastructure needed to reach 1.8 billion readers it will have taken the technology industry less than 10 years to achieve a comparable reach.
This new report titled 'Newspapers & the Internet: 2011 to 2015' contains some truly startling data, analysis and insight backed up by a detailed, holistic analysis of all aspects of the newspaper business.
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