Jordan Defence and Security Report 2012
Business Monitor International, January 2012, Pages: 106
In 2011 BMI estimates that defence spending fell by 1.12% in Jordanian dinar terms, to JOD1.01bn. This fall is viewed as temporary, however, and in fact only represents a fall to 5.46% of GDP being spent on defence – still a very significant figure comparatively to global terms. BMI sees a growth of around 8.3% in defence spending through 2012, which will increase to 10% in 2015, before dropping slightly to 8.7% in 2016. Constant US$ change, however, is more relaxed, with a return to growth in 2012 of 3.8% following a 6.3% contraction in 2011. This budget is subsidised heavily by much of the rest of the world, with transfers often being labelled as gifts or being recognised as part of a package of aid. In particular, the GCC (particularly Saudi Arabia), as well as the US, have given large grants to the Hashemite kingdom in 2011, and this has had a noticeable effect on the finances of the state.
With Middle East defence spending expected to reach record levels by the end of the forecast period, with overall budgets expected to be US$80.0bn by 2015, as reported by Gulfweb, a news agency, Jordan’s position as the third-largest spender in the region seems likely to be maintained.
However, top-level economic growth is expected to be much slower in the coming year than it has been in the recent past, with an official predicted 3% growth in 2011, stated by Faris Abdul Hamid Sharaf, the former central banker, in October 2011. This is notably slower than the 7% that was experienced through much of the last decade, and as such will have a notable effect on the spending policies of the Kingdom, and even this 3% may now be unlikely. In this case, a series of much more serious belt-tightening may be underway.
Defence spending in Jordan may often, however, represent more than just an acquisition of arms and capabilities – it can also be seen as a way to increase the legitimacy of the regime, as it both creates a more effective deterrent in the relationship with Israel, as well as offering the King the opportunity to give his main support base, the East Bankers, a privileged position in society in relation to the Palestinian population. This has the effect of not necessarily increasing capacity directly in line with investment. While the Jordanian armed forces are seen as some of the more effective in the Middle East Region, there is also the wide-spread perception that they are bloated in terms of personnel, possibly to the point of limiting funds for further procurement in the near future.
Since the tail end of 2010, the advent of the Arab Spring has put many readings of Jordanian politics and regime security into a totally different light – that of the possibility of imminent change based on widespread grassroots political movement. However, there is little to suggest that there will be a replica of Tunisia or Egypt in Jordan – with much firmer American support, as well as a more fragmented society under King Abdullah II than either of the supposed analogues. There is still a widespread taboo concerning talking bad of the King – and while this may be weakening, it certainly seems that there will need to be a serious ‘watershed’ moment for this belief to be realised in any meaningful way. This should in no way become the dominant narrative to any understanding of regime security in Jordan, however.
There is certainly ongoing economic discontent due to high poverty and unemployment, and a growing anti-US stance among the Jordanian public, in opposition to the government’s pro-US policy. These were elements that were obvious in other Arab autocracies in the past two years, and as these revolutions were also largely unexpected, it would be unwise to totally discount any changes in the coming forecast period.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Jordan Security SWOT
Jordan Defence Industry SWOT
Jordan Political SWOT
Jordan Economic SWOT
Jordan Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics Nuclear Proliferation
External Powers
Scenarios For The Middle East
What If Assad’s Regime Falls? Scenarios Assessed
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Jordan’s Security Risk Ratings
Political Overview
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Terrorism
Ongoing Threats
Southern Dissent
Latest Developments
Regional External Security Situation
International
Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Defence Equipment
International Deployments
Table: Jordan’s Foreign Deployments
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Latest Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Armed Forces, 2000-2009 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Jordan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2016
Defence Trade
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Jordan – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Company Profiles
Indigenous Manufacturers
King Abdullah II Design and Development Bureau (KADDB)
Joint Ventures
Jordan Light Vehicle Manufacturing (JLVM)
Foreign Manufacturers
Raytheon Technical Services Company (RTSC)
RUAG Land Systems
General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS)
United Defense
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
- King Abdullah II Design and Development Bureau (KADDB)
- Jordan Light Vehicle Manufacturing (JLVM)
- Raytheon Technical Services Company (RTSC)
- RUAG Land Systems
- General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS)
- United Defense
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