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Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 50
Business Monitor International's Belgium Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belgium's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Subdued oil demand growth means the prospects for refiners and fuels distributors – already faced with strong competition and the need to maintain investment for environmental reasons – are uninspiring. The gas market has greater potential, both in terms of rising domestic demand and the scope to re-sell surplus LNG through regional pipeline links. Market maturity means there is a risk leading industrial players may divest as they seek higher growth and wider margins elsewhere.
The main trends and developments BMI highlight in Belgium’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- With growth in nuclear generation capacity to remain stagnant over the next few years, before reactors are dismantled under a proposed phase-out, new electricity generating capacity is likely to be largely gas-fired, with some emphasis on renewables. From around 19.7bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, BMI expect to see Belgian gas demand rise to 21.7bcm by 2016, all met by increased pipeline and LNG imports.
- Gas could flow in both directions between France and Belgium by 2015 after the countries’ energy regulators approved a new interconnection point at the Belgium border town of Verne. The Verne interconnector would connect non-odorised gas coming from France with the Belgian grid, according to documents seen by energy data provider Platts. The interconnector would allow 8.4bcm-11.3bcm to be exported from France to Belgium each year and CRE expects interconnector to come online in late 2014 or early 2015.
- Belgium imported a net 6.43bcm of gas in the form of LNG in 2010. BMI expect volumes to increase in line with rising gas consumption, but near-term progress is likely to be slow. There were exports in 2010 of 0.57bcm. Belgium’s overall LNG imports are expected to reach 7.0bcm per annum by 2015/16.
- As with most of Developed Europe, Belgium is experiencing slow growth in oil consumption. BMIs assumption is that oil demand will have risen only slightly in 2011 to 603,750 barrels per day (b/d). By 2016, BMI see demand at no more than 634,040b/d.
- The cost of crude imports is expected to have been US$22.46bn in 2011, easing to US$21.58bn by 2016. The cost of gas purchases has been put at US$9.96bn in 2011 and should be US$10.07bn in 2016. Combined oil and gas costs are expected to be US$31.64bn by the end of the forecast period.
At time of writing, BMI assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.40/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is estimated at 3.6%.
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