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Bulgaria Food and Drink Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 108
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's food and drink industry.
Bulgaria will remain considered one of the less attractive Central and Eastern Europe food and drinks markets. In fact, following the roll-out of their more rewards-sensitive ratings methodology, Bulgaria slipped to last place within the regional matrix for Q112. Its youth population component, for example, scores just 1 out of the maximum 10 points, indicating limited room for the placement of novel products on the market. Macroeconomic environment and fiscal austerity measures will also continue to impact on the performance of most of the country’s food and drink market segments, which are at best expected to post low single-digit annual growth rates throughout the forecast period to 2016. Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2011 per capita food consumption: +2.21%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016:+2.80%
- 2011 alcoholic drinks sales: +1.63%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016:+1.99%
- 2011 soft drinks sales: -0.51%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016:+3.79%
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales: +3.90%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2016:+5.70%
Key Industry Trends
Brewer Offloading Malt Factory to Focus on Beer: In August 2011, France-based Malteries Soufflet has announced that it will buy Bulgarian brewer Kamenitza's malt production plant in Pleven and lease the firm's malt capacity in Haskovo under a long-term contract. The French company is also to buy malt from Kamenitza’s Plovdiv brewery. According to Balkans Business News, Kamenitza has decided to offload its non-essential assets and focus on beer production, while also aiming to reach its target of constant growth through the sale. Kamenitza owns 21 malt factories in nine countries.
Belgian Delhaize Looking to Expand in the Balkans: Belgian mass grocery retailer Delhaize Group is looking for expansion opportunities in Greece, Serbia and Bulgaria, on the back of its acquisition of Serbian retailer Delta Maxi in March 2011. Through this purchase, Delhaize also acquired the Bulgarian supermarket chain Piccadilly Stores. Delhaize has since stated its intention to launch 15 new Piccadilly stores per year over the next decade. Erikjan Lantink of Piccadilly said the store was planning to source more local products and would also expand into the convenience store sector.
China Looking to Source Agricultural Products from Bulgaria: In November 2011, a Chinese agricultural company was reported to be investing EUR10mn in the lease of land located in the northwest of Bulgaria. Tianjin State Farms Agribusiness Group Company will use the land for the production of legumes, corn and sunflower, which will be exported to China. The Chinese company is planning to invest a further EUR20mn in similar schemes in Bulgaria, which are also expected to include animal husbandry.
Key Risks To Outlook
Risks Firmly to the Downside: Downside risk to their current forecasts for Bulgaria are represented by a combination of economic, political and demographic factors. For example, the weakening eurozone situation will stump Bulgaria’s export performance, which had been vital for its economic recovery. In terms of political risks, the recently re-elected GERB party may party is facing an increasingly difficult macroeconomic outlook. Not only will the souring economic outlook increase the potential for social unrest, it may also have the impact of increasing government expenditures as authorities attempt to boost economic growth. In the current financial market climate, this could cause investors to become increasingly risk averse towards Bulgaria, increasing the government's borrowing costs. Similarly, Bulgaria’s deteriorating demographic profile will provide a further challenge for policymakers as well as for commercial enterprises involved in the food and drinks sectors, which have fewer opportunities for marketing campaigns targeting aspirational consumers.
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