Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, December 2011, Pages: 73
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Infighting between local authorities and key refinery operator Lukoil hardly bodes well for the downstream oil segment, while upstream prospects rest on early and significant success at Black Sea drilling operations. Shale gas prospects could stimulate long-term supply. Meanwhile, energy import dependency creeps steadily higher.
The main trends and developments BMI highlight for Bulgaria’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- Canada's TransAtlantic Petroleum may start gas production from a Bulgarian field in 2012, the economy and energy ministry said in July 2011. The maximum prospective resources in the Koinare field, some 130km north of Sofia, are estimated at over 34bn cubic metres (bcm) and production could start in 2012 at Deventsi, one of the field’s four sections, the ministry said. The annual gas production from Deventsi may reach 1bcm depending on the number of wells and sales contracts. In addition, Melrose Resources brought the Kaliakra and Kavarna gas fields onstream in late-2010.
- Bulgarian gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. Although gas output may reach 1.4bcm by 2016, demand will hit 5.5bcm, requiring imports of 4.1bcm. In November 2009, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum under which Bulgaria plans to import about 1bcm of natural gas from the Central Asian country from 2012/2013.
- Oil demand growth, already modest before the current economic downturn, will make little progress until GDP growth accelerates, which suggests consumption may reach just 124,500 barrels per day (b/d) by 2016. Imports are expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts by small independent oil companies (IOCs) are likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes.
- In January 2011, Russian oil major Lukoil restarted a major investment programme at the Burgas refinery, which had been put on hold during the global economic downturn. France’s Technip was awarded a EUR70mn (US$95mn) contract for the first phase of the heavy residue hydrocracking complex at the refinery, according to a January 2011 press release. The contract award is part of the delayed US$1.3bn project to transform the plant into a deep refining complex. Lukoil was to have invested US$240mn in the plant in 2011, but has been battling with local authorities over its operator licence.
- Bulgaria is set to import an annual average of 112,000-124,000b/d of crude over the next five years, implying costs of around US$4.2bn in 2011, which will remain unchanged to 2016. Gas imports of 3.1bcm-4.1bcm per annum during the forecast period mean total petroleum costs will be US$6.1bn by 2016.
At time of writing, BMI assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.40/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is put at 3.6%.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 000b/d, 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production, 000b/d, 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: CEE Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: CEE LNG Gas Exports (bcm)
Bulgaria Energy Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Bulgaria Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Central Eastern Europe Region
Regional Risk/Rewards Ratings
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating
Regional Upstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Overview
Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report Q1
Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Rewards
Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Risks
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating
Bulgaria Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Lukoil Neftekhim
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production plc
Petrol
OMV Bulgaria
Shell Bulgaria
EKO Bulgaria
Melrose Resources
Bulgargaz – Summary
TransAtlantic/Direct Petroleum – Summary
JKX Oil & Gas/Aurelian Oil & Gas – Summary
Prista Oil – Summary
Gazprom – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption Long Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Refining Capacity Long Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, (b/d)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report Q1
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Lukoil Neftekhim
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production plc
- Petrol
- OMV Bulgaria
- Shell Bulgaria
- EKO Bulgaria
- Melrose Resources
- Bulgargaz
- TransAtlantic/Direct Petroleum
- JKX Oil & Gas/Aurelian Oil & Gas
- Prista Oil
- Gazprom
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