Market and Product Forecasts: Psoriasis - Novel products and current biologics to fuel future market growth
Datamonitor, November 2011, Pages: 68
Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer) remains the market leader, with 32% of an estimated $4.5bn psoriasis market in 2011. However, Humira (adalimumab; Abbott/Eisai) is closing in, with 29% market share. Still, Stelara (ustekinumab; Janssen Biotech) is trailblazing the US and EU markets, threatening both brands. By 2020, biosimilars, generics and four product launches will grow the market to $5.5bn.
Features and benefits
- Access Datamonitor’s patient based psoriasis market forecast of over 50 products in the seven major markets, with clear methodology and assumptions.
- Assess current and future patient-numbers and enhance understanding of the impact future events may have on these.
- Evaluate which novel products Datamonitor expects to launch over the coming decade, and how each of these will alter the market.
- Gain insight into the psoriasis competitive landscape, and determine which brands drive growth.
Highlights
- Owing to delayed competition from key contender Ozespa (briakinumab; Abbott), a favorable dosing regimen, and expansion into Japan in March 2011, Stelara will continue its ascendance in the seven major psoriasis markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK), reaching peak sales of $1,516m by 2016.
- AIN457 (secukinumab; Novartis) could be the first-to-market interleukin (IL)-17 drug for psoriasis. Akin to IL brand Stelara’s superb performance to date, Datamonitor forecasts high uptake for AIN457, with sales of $252m by 2020, following launch in 2014. Making AIN457 a key growth driver of the systemic anti-psoriasis class over the next decade.
- Ozespa’s future in psoriasis remains unclear, after its US and EU regulatory filings were withdrawn in January 2011, owing to safety issues. Datamonitor projects commercial success hinged on Abbott resubmitting US and EU regulatory applications. With estimated launch by 2013, its sales are forecast to reach $308m by 2020.
Your key questions answered
- How will the overall psoriasis market dynamics evolve in terms of patients and sales from 2011 through to 2020?
- Which drug classes will experience the most change through to 2020, and which brands are fuelling these changes?
- What impact will the launch of novel biologic AIN457 (secukinumab; Novartis) have on market dynamics across the seven major markets?
- To what extent can oral candidates Tofacitinib (CP-690,550; Pfizer) and Apremilast (CC-10004; Celgene) challenge established oral and biologic drugs?
- What is the future outlook for Abbott’s Ozespa (briakinumab), following the withdrawal of its regulatory filings in early 2011?
Executive Summary
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for psoriasis
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
New product launches
Additional forecast methodology
MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
Novel biologic and oral pipeline therapies set to intensify future competition for key marketed biologics
US market to experience positive growth over the coming decade
Availability of biologics boosts sales in Japanese psoriasis market
Continuing uptake of biologics coupled with new product launches will spur growth in the EU
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
PRODUCT FORECASTS: BIOLOGICS
Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer/Stiefel/Takeda)
Forecast assumptions
Enbrel forecast 2011–
Humira (adalimumab; Abbott/Eisai)
Forecast assumptions
Humira forecast 2011–
Remicade (infliximab; Janssen Biotech/Johnson & Johnson/Merck & Co./Mitsubishi Tanabe)
Forecast assumptions
Remicade forecast 2011–
Stelara (ustekinumab; Janssen Biotech/Janssen-Cilag/Johnson & Johnson)
Forecast assumptions
Stelara forecast 2011–
Ozespa (briakinumab/ABT-874; Abbott)
Forecast assumptions
Ozespa forecast 2011–
AIN457 (secukinumab; Novartis)
Forecast assumptions
AIN457 forecast 2011–
PRODUCT FORECASTS: SMALL MOLECULES (TOPICAL)
Dovonex/Daivonex/Psorcutan (calcipotriol; Leo Pharma/Intendis/Torii/Teikoku Medix)
Forecast assumptions
Dovonex/Daivonex/Psorcutan forecast 2011–
Dovobet/Daivobet/Taclonex (calcipotriol and betamethasone; Leo Pharma/Intendis)
Forecast assumptions
Dovobet/Daivobet/Taclonex 2011–
Vectical/Silkis (calcitriol; Galderma)
Forecast assumptions
Vectical/Silkis forecast 2011–
PRODUCT FORECASTS: SMALL MOLECULES (ORAL)
Tofacitinib (formerly tasocitinib, CP-690,550; Pfizer)
Forecast assumptions
Tofacitinib forecast 2011–
Apremilast (CC-10004; Celgene)
Forecast assumptions
Apremilast forecast 2011–
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX
Contributing experts
Forecast methodology
Volume and value forecast methodology
Price and compliance assumptions
Physician sample breakdown
Report methodology
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