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Chile Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 50
Business Monitor International's Chile Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's freight transportation industry.
The Chilean economy's robust economic growth is likely to continue cooling in the coming quarters, as an increasingly likely global economic slowdown begins to weigh on a still strong, but decelerating, domestic demand outlook. BMI believe that internal factors, such as the ongoing fiscal consolidation programme and monetary policy tightening of recent months, are likely to moderate the headline growth rate in the coming quarters - down from 10.0% y-o-y and 6.8% y-o-y posted in Q111 and Q211 respectively. Meanwhile, the increasing prospect of a global slowdown poses additional downside risk.
Therefore, BMI are slightly revising down BMIs 2012 forecast to 4.8%, from 5.0% previously.
In BMIs view, net exports will continue to drag on the headline growth rate. While the domestic demand outlook is slowing, Chile's external demand story is likely to be weaker and BMI still believe that import growth will outpace that of exports, putting downside pressure on port volumes. This drag could be exacerbated if the global economic slowdown extends to Asia. As BMI have noted in the past, given the significance of copper exports to the nation's economy, any significant drop in copper export demand. particularly from Asia which comprises around 65% of demand or a large correction in copper prices, could push net exports further into negative territory and pose significant downside risk to BMIs throughput forecasts for Chile.
Headline Industry Data
- Air freight tonnage forecast to rise by 10.8% in 2012, with average growth of 9.4% over the next five years.
- Total tonnes at the Port of Valparaíso forecast to rise 13.5%, to 13.4mn tonnes in 2012, with average growth of 11.9% over the next five years.
- Rail freight tonnes forecast to rise 3% in 2012, reaching 28.5mn tonnes, with average growth of 2.6 % over the next five years.
Key Industry Trends
- CSAV Tries To Keep Its Head Above Water With Capital Increase
- CSAV is continuing its efforts to weather the storm that is engulfing the container shipping industry as it struggles to deal with falling rates and increasing fuel prices. The company's shareholders have approved a US$1.2bn capital increase to boost the finances of the Chilean shipping line, which is bracing itself for negative earnings.
- LAN-TAM Merger Hopes For A Smooth Landing
The proposed merger between Chile's LAN and Brazilian carrier TAM has weathered another patch of turbulence as Chilean rival PAL dropped its constitutional challenge to the deal. With the mereer receiving the approval of Brazil's finance ministry on August 15 2011 and the green light from the Chilean authorities, BMI expect it to go ahead during H111.
Risks To Outlook
The risks to BMIs outlook are mainly on the downside. One risk is the possibility that Chile will not be able to improve its port infrastructure to keep up with demand. Infrastructure deficits limit expansion. If Chile does not improve efficiency and capacity, there is risk that as ports begin to reach the limits of their capacity coming up to 2014, importers will look elsewhere for their supplies.
A further risk is the possibility of a hard landing in China. A shaper slowdown in the Chinese construction sector would result in a drop off in demand for Chilean raw materials exports such as copper and iron ore, with a negative effect on volumes carried via Chile's freight transport network. '
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