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Hong Kong Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Dec 2011, Pages: 46
Business Monitor International's Hong Kong Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's freight transportation industry.
BMI expects further growth in Hong Kong's freight volumes in 2012, following a year in which we believe saw expansion in all major freight modes.
Total trade is projected to pick up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 4.70% in 2012, after an estimated growth of 7.95% in 2011.
Maritime freight will continue to dominate the sector, with throughput at the Port of Hong Kong forecast to rise by 3.09% y-o-y in 2012. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn but promptly recovered in 2010 and continued its growth in 2011.
BMI notes that inland waterway freight, Hong Kong's second largest freight mode, continued to increase during the downturn and is expected to keep doing so in 2012.
Headline Industry Data:
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 6.7%;
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to decrease by 1.5%;
- 2012 Port of Hong Kong throughput is forecast to grow by 3.1%;
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 4.3%;
- 2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 3.6%;
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 4.7%.
Key Industry Trends:
Seventh Month Of Declines At Main Airport And Major Airline
Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA), the world's largest airport in terms of cargo volumes handled, experienced its seventh consecutive month of year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in October 2011. BMI notes this is reflective of the uncertain outlook in the Western economies of Europe and North America, and we believe that the situation may well deteriorate further before picking up once again. HKIA-based Cathay Pacific, which became the world's largest air freight carrier in 2010, also experienced its seventh consecutive month of y-o-y decline in October.
Higher Volumes But Lower Revenues For Container Line
Hong Kong-based Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL)'s total income for the first three quarters of 2011 was up 2.1% y-o-y to US$4bn. The company reported an 8.4% growth in liftings to 3.76mn twentyfoot equivalent units (TEUs), with revenue per TEU decreasing by 5.8% y-o-y in January-September 2011. The decline in rates, despite the growth in volumes, once again highlights the problem of overcapacity that box lines are facing, especially on the Asia-Europe trade route.
OOCL Increases Terminal Capacity
OOCL has announced that two Super-Post-Panamax gantry cranes will be installed at its Kaohsiung Container Terminal (KAOCT) at Kaohsiung Port, Taiwan. The cranes were purchased as part of OOCL's programme to upgrade KAOCT's facilities. They are expected to replace two of the six currently functioning Post-Panamax gantry cranes by July 2012. The move will enable KAOCT to simultaneously handle two mega container vessels with capacities of over 10,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
Risks To Outlook
The key risks to our outlook for Hong Kong stem from the two giant Asian economies: China and Japan. It is transhipment trade from the two, in particular China, that has made Hong Kong such an important trading hub over the years. As Chinese trade moves inland, however, and the mainland develops its own transhipment hubs, Hong Kong will stand to lose business to Chinese ports and airports. The special administrative region has also been losing the patronage of a number of key logistics companies to Singapore, which could come to affect our air, sea and road haulage forecasts. Over the medium term, Japanese rebuilding efforts after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami provide upside risk. The development of intra-Asia trade, which is likely to see goods shipped directly between ports, instead of being transhipped via Hong Kong, provides another threat to the country's major port.
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