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Saudi Arabia Shipping Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 129
The outlook for Saudi Arabia is currently a strong one. The country has benefited from elevated oil prices through 2011 and the government, influenced by the Arab Spring which has toppled regimes in other regional countries and destabilised others, is pumping some of the surplus from this into a massive stimulus package. The infrastructure investment and higher disposable incomes this will cause will help growth continue at the country's maritime ports. Specific investments in expanding these maritime facilities, and in projects such as the Saudi Landbridge, will further boost throughputs. Risks are on the horizon, however, as a slowdown in growth in China, and continued economic crises in the West, could lead to another downturn in 2012.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Jeddah Islamic Port total tonnage throughput growth forecast 2.5%, and to average 1.7% per annum to 2016.
- 2012 Jeddah Islamic Port container throughput growth forecast 2.9%, and to average 2.9% per
annum to 2016.
- 2012 total trade real growth forecast at 1.5%, and to average 2.4% over the mid term.
Key Industry Trends
Jeddah Islamic Port Investments Give Upside Risk To BMI Forecasts
In October 2011 the Jeddah Islamic Port (JIP), Saudi Arabia's largest port in terms of both container handling and total tonnage throughput, signed a new deal to upgrade the roads within the facility. BMI notes that this is part of a wider Saudi investment in its maritime facilities and supply chains in general, and provides upside risk to our throughput forecasts for JIP.
Considerable Crude Loadings
According to Bloomberg, oil tankers able to haul a combined 10.4mn barrels a day were at the primary Saudi Arabian oil terminal of Ras Tanura (the world's largest crude oil terminal) in the week ended November 12 2011. The vessels had a combined total capacity of 9.9mn deadweight tonnes (DWT), 22% greater than that recorded in the previous seven day period. Japan and South Korea were to be the principal recipients of the crude oil exports.
Port Officials Refuse Increase In Container Clearance Time
Transportation prices for clearing container truckloads at Dammam's King Abdul Aziz Port in Saudi Arabia have witnessed a massive 300% rise to SAR1,000 (US$266.8), it was reported in mid August. However, according to a senior port official, neither the price of transportation has increased nor has the clearing of goods faced any delay at the port.
Key Risks To Outlook
A sharper-than-expected downturn in the global economy could pose significant downside risks to our forecasts for Saudi Arabia's fiscal position, if it was to translate into a substantial decline in oil prices, leading to a further narrowing of the government's budget surplus. This in turn could have an effect on throughputs at the country's maritime facilities.
Business Monitor International's Saudi Arabia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Saudi Arabia's shipping industry.
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