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Serbia Telecommunications Report 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 89
The Serbia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia’s telecommunications industry.
Key features:
- Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbia telecommunications market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in Serbia's Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
- Exploit Latest Competitive Serbia Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
BMI’s Q112 update to Serbia’s telecommunications market report contains updated and extended forecasts that predict how the country’s fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile sectors will develop through to the end of 2016. In addition the Q112 update includes forecast for monthly blended mobile ARPU for the first time. The new forecasts reflect 2010 data published by Serbia’s fixed-line incumbent operator Telekom Srbija and by the Serbian telecoms regulator RATEL. The forecasts and analysis also incorporate data published by the country’s three mobile operators, MTS, Telekom Srbija’s mobile business; Telenor Serbia, which is wholly owned by the Norwegian telecoms company Telenor; and Mobilkom Serbia (VIP Mobile), a subsidiary of Telekom Austria. At the time of writing, the latest data for the mobile market related to the period to the end of September 2011.
One major development since the previous update is the failed privatisation of the incumbent Telekom Srbija. In 2011 the government attempted to sell a 51% stake in Telekom Srbija, but disagreements with potential buyer Telekom Austria over the price ultimately stopped the deal. At the time of writing, the government was in negotiations with OTE to purchase its 20% stake in the incumbent. This would take government control to 100%. Various government officials have been quoted regarding a plan to sell off the stake through a listing and share give away to employees and citizens although at the time of writing there was no concrete plan until the 20% stake purchase is completed. This is an issue that we will revisit in subsequent updates to the Serbia report as it has large implications for the future development of the market.
The latest data from Serbia’s telecoms regulator RATEL, and from the country’s three mobile operators, show that there were more than 9.916mn Serbian mobile customers at the end of 2010. This is equivalent to a penetration rate of 136%. Meanwhile, based on an analysis of data published by Serbia’s mobile operators, it is estimated that the country’s mobile customer base expanded by 4.9% in the first nine months of 2011. BMI estimates a growth rate of 5.6% for 2011 as a whole. This is robust growth considering the existing high penetration rate in the country, but BMI also notes the potential for this figure to decline as a result of inactive subscriber discounting, most likely by VIP and MTS. Meanwhile, we estimate that 3G customers accounted for over 13% of the mobile market at the end of 2010; this was up from 7.7% at the end of 2009. This figure is expected to reach 16.9% at YE11 as investments in network infrastructure by mobile operators, including in 3.5G HSPA+ technology, alongside the increasing affordability of 3G handsets, will drive growth in the sector. However, BMI cautions that a potential weak economic climate as a result of the eurozone crisis could be a factor in dampening 3G subscriber growth in 2012.
Nevertheless, BMI is optimistic about the future expansion of the 3G market segment. Serbia’s telecoms regulator suggests that the number of fixed-line telephony connections declined by 3.2% in 2010 to reach 3.0mn (equivalent to 41.2% penetration). BMI believes that 2010 marked a turning point for the Serbian fixed-line market as subscriptions begin to decline as a result of competition from mobile telephony and VoIP. However, countering this trend will be the contribution of competition following liberalisation, which should lower prices and induce service uptake, and growth of converged services where fixed-line subscriptions are bundled with broadband and/or pay-TV, which we expect to reduce fixed-line losses. As a result of these trends, BMI forecasts Serbia’s fixed-line penetration rate to fall slightly to 40.4% by YE16.
Meanwhile, according to the regulator, the number of Serbian broadband connections increased by 43.9% in 2010 to reach 995,000 equivalent to a penetration rate of 13.6%. BMI growth of over 22% in 2011 has helped to raise the penetration rate to over 16.7% by the end of 2011. One of the most significant developments in recent months has been the growth of the mobile broadband segment. However, growth in demand for DSL and cable-based broadband services also remains strong, particularly as the incumbent continues to invest in FTTx and DSL, part of its IPTV and phasing out of dial-up services respectively. Serbia sits in 14th position in BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for Central and Eastern Europe. The country scores below the regional average in all of the categories surveyed by BMI with the exception of Industry Rewards.
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