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Colombia Retail Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 82
Business Monitor International's Colombia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's retail industry.
The Q112 BMI Colombia retail report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow from an estimated COP236.48trn (US$120.21bn) in 2011 to COP332.30trn (US$168.92bn) by 2015, a rise of nearly 41%. Underlying economic growth, a young and increasingly urban population, rising disposable income and more women in employment are key factors behind the forecast growth in Colombia's retail sales.
Colombia's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$320.3bn in 2011, with real GDP growth of 4.8% expected for the year. Average annual real GDP growth of 4.6% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population increasing from an expected 46.9mn in 2011 to an estimated 49.4mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise to US$9,011 by the end of the forecast period.
Domestic demand will continue to be the key driver of GDP growth, with improvements in the security outlook feeding through to increased consumer and investor confidence. Although Colombia did not reach its target of 4mn tourist arrivals in 2009 due to factors such as the H1N1 virus and the global economic crisis, it still achieved 16% y-o-y growth in the number of foreign visitors, while the world average contracted by 4%.
In 2005, 64.4% of the Colombian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 39.2% in the 20-44 age range that is important to retail sales. More than three-quarters of the population were classified by the UN as urban (77.4%). In 2010, the urban population is estimated to have reached almost 80% of the total, with 38.5% aged 20-44 and 67.2% of the population economically active. The retail sector benefits from Colombia's status as the third most populous country in Latin America.
Retail sub-sectors likely to see strong growth over the period include food and drink, with sales expected to rise by nearly 80% between 2011 and 2015, from US$38.70bn to US$69.63bn. Growth in mass grocery retail (MGR) sales is expected to outstrip overall food sales at more than 83%, with MGR's share of the overall food market predicted to grow from 33.3% in 2011 to 33.8% by 2015. Modern and sophisticated retail formats are increasingly popular with consumers and further growth is expected, particularly in the hypermarket and smaller supermarket or express store formats.
With rising incomes driving take-up of more advanced medicines and more comprehensive health insurance plans, sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals are forecast to grow from US$0.66bn in 2011 to US$1.01bn b 2015, a rise of nearly 53%.
Sales of consumer electronic products are forecast at US$4.37bn in 2011, with BMI predicting a rise of 52.6% to US$6.66bn by the end of the forecast period. Consumer electronics spending per capita is projected to rise 45% to about US$115 by the end of the forecast period, following growth in key digital products groups such as computers (which have only 13% penetration), notebook computers and digital TV sets.
Vehicle sales are forecast to rise by 41% over the forecast period, from 309,720 units in 2011 to 436,745 units by 2015.
Retail sales for the Latin American universe in 2011 are expected to reach US$1,344bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI's macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$3,004bn. Brazil and Mexico are expected to account for an estimated 74.0% of regional retail sales in 2011, with the two countries still likely to account for 72.5% of all retail sales in the region by 2015. For Colombia, its predicted 2011 market share of 8.9% is expected to fall to 8.6% by 2015.
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