|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Egypt Metals Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Jan 2012, Pages: 40
Business Monitor International's Egypt Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's metals industry.
2011 will be a lost year for Egyptian metals production, with the civil unrest and political uncertainty undermining performance in the second half of the year, according to BMI's latest Egypt Metals Report. In the first 10 months of 2011 Egyptian crude steel production grew just 1.2% y-o-y, to 5.45mn tonnes.
This follows 21.1% growth, to 6.57mn tonnes, in 2010,which was assisted by export growth of 77%, to around 446,000 tonnes, and an 18% rise in domestic finished steel consumption, to 8.62mn tonnes. BMI forecasts steel consumption rose 1% to 8.7mn tonnes in 10M11. But poor performance earlier in the year mean BMI estimates that steel output grows just 0.5%, to 6.60mn tonnes, for 2011 as a whole, down from its previous estimate of 6.7mn tonnes. While the devaluation of the Egyptian pound meant that imports fell drastically, the resumption of port operations meant that exports were quickly returning to normal, thus helping to restore sales.
Although the long-term potential is good, at the moment there is very little to suggest that growth will be able to return to the 5-7% area witnessed in the years leading up to the crisis. Low rates of GDP growth will be reflected in steel output and consumption figures. BMI has revised down its finished steel consumption from 9.34mn tonnes to 8.9mn tonnes in 2012.
The country has been operating well under full capacity, with a utilisation rate of just 78% of its 8.8mn tpa potential. Even without further capacity expansion, Egypt has the potential to grow by over 30% from 2010 levels using currently operating plants. Despite the effects of political instability in the short term, BMI still expects annual crude output to reach 11.62mn tonnes by 2016. Although this represents a 76% increase over 2011 levels, it will still not be enough to cover domestic demand, which is set to grow by nearly 35% to around 11.7mn tonnes in 2016.
There are major concerns over the future of the Egyptian aluminium industry in the face of strong competition from new production capacity in the Gulf Co-operation Council, where producers have capacities of around 1mn tpa. The state-owned smelter in Naga Hammadi, which currently produces just 23,000 tonnes of aluminium annually, will need modernisation and substantial expansion over the medium term in order to remain operational and efficient. Political uncertainties make this unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
